Peter Yan - Merab Dvalishvili: betting tip (cf 2.65) and bets on the fight

UFC 333. yas-island
Petr YanRussian Federation
Merab DvalishviliUSA
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Dmitriy Budanov
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30 days+11=0-18
ROI-1.1%
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Petr Yan - Merab Dvalishvili
The champion of the Absolute Fighting Championship in the lightest weight category, Peter Yan, will face Merab Dvalishvili in the co-main match of the evening on October 24. The fight will take place in Abu Dhabi (UAE). Will the Russian be able to succeed in a fight with a fighter from Georgia? And what kind of bet to choose before this confrontation - we understand our betting tip

Command Analysis

Petr Yan

Current form

The upcoming confrontation is an immediate rematch after the meeting at the UFC 323 tournament in December 2025. Then Peter Yan won by unanimous decision of the judges: two arbitrators scored 49-46, the third — 48-47. The advantage of the Russian was convincing enough to talk about a well-deserved victory. He didn't just win the championship fight, but showed that even Dvalishvili's famous pace can be turned from an advantage into a problem.

Yang had an outstanding fight and won the UFC bantamweight title for the second time in his career. From the very first minutes, the Russian competently acted in defense against transfers to the stalls, not allowing the opponent to implement the usual scenario with impunity. In the stand, Peter worked more precisely, found gaps in the Georgian's defense, delivered tangible blows and cut his face. Yes, Dvalishvili continued to move forward with the same indefatigability that has long been his calling card.  The Georgian still brought the fight to the floor several times, but this was not enough to turn the tide of the meeting. In the middle of the fight, Yang slowed down a little, but a powerful kick to the opponent's body seemed to give him a second wind. The Russian again increased his activity and held strong championship rounds.

It is Peter's work in the rack that deserves special attention. Dvalishvili is used to forcing rivals to make mistakes through constant pressure, but in the December fight he found himself in the position of a man who had to find a way out of an unpleasant situation. The blows to the body caused him noticeable discomfort. It is almost impossible to completely deprive Merab of stamina, but it is quite possible to make him choose his moments more carefully. 

Yang is a two—time UFC bantamweight champion. Earlier, the Russian also became the interim champion of the organization. Before joining the UFC, he competed in Absolute Championship Berkut and won the championship title in this league. Yang is ranked fourth in the UFC Pound-for-Pound ranking, which unites fighters of different weight categories.

The basis of his striking technique was boxing, which the Russian practiced for eight years and in which he fulfilled the standard of the master of sports in the category up to 64 kg. At the same time, Yang is not limited to working with his hands: he has a blue belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, which helps him feel more confident in wrestling. In September 2017, Peter defended his ACB championship title against Brazilian Mateus Mattos at the ACB 71 tournament in Moscow. After winning two rounds, the Russian sent his opponent to the floor with a left uppercut, and the referee stopped the fight.

The knockout in the third round was the successful completion of the belt defense. Already in January 2018, Yang signed a contract with the UFC, and made his debut in the world's leading promotion in June of the same year at the UFC Fight Night 132 tournament. His first opponent was Teruto Ishihara, whom the Russian defeated by technical knockout in the opening round. 33-year-old Yan has 20 wins, seven of which were by knockout, one by submission, and 12 by decision of the judges. He also has five defeats on his record. 

Merab Dvalishvili

Current form

Merab Dvalishvili is approaching the rematch with a record of 21 wins and five losses. He won three times by knockout, twice by submission, and 16 more times left the decision to the judges. His main weapon is not a single punch or even a single wrestling combination, but the ability to maintain a crazy pace throughout the match. The December setback against Yang was a serious test for Merab. An overloaded calendar can be considered one of the possible explanations.: That fight was his fourth title appearance in a year. Even by the standards of the modern UFC, such activity looks exceptional. Especially considering that Dvalishvili usually has to go through all five rounds, and between fights it is necessary to have time to recover and conduct a full-fledged training camp.

During the previous year, the Georgian worked out the full five-round distance three times, and in the fourth fight he forced Sean O'Malley to surrender in the third round. For most fighters, such a series would be a serious test of their physical abilities.  However, even the most reliable engine has a limit. Constant training, flights, preparation for title fights and the performances themselves require enormous resources. Last year could have shown that exceptional endurance does not negate the need to recover. And if Merab was not in the best condition in December, now he had much more time to prepare for the confrontation with Jan. Dvalishvili is a former UFC bantamweight champion and the first native of Georgia to win the organization's title. He is considered one of the most prominent representatives of this division. The Georgian ranks first in the ranking of the lightest category and is in the ninth position of the overall UFC men's ranking.

Merab's path to the top was not cloudless. His first two appearances in the UFC ended with defeats to Frankie Saenz and Ricky Simon. But then the Georgian produced an impressive streak of 14 consecutive victories, defeating former champions Jan, Jose Alda, Henry Cejudo and Sean O'Malley, among others.  Dvalishvili is especially dangerous in wrestling. He constantly changes the direction of attacks, pins opponents to the net, looks for an opportunity to get into his legs and tries not to give them time to rest. In the clinch, the Georgian uses short punches and knees, and in the stand he can unexpectedly connect with roundhouse punches. The threat of transfer to the stalls forces the opponent to concentrate on defense, opening up additional opportunities for attacks.

Tip and bets

TipDvalishvili's victory
2.65

In December, we saw a bad version of Dvalishvili, and the reason could be an excessive workload. Four title fights in a year is a challenge that can affect even an athlete with outstanding physical fitness. Now Merab had almost twelve months to recover, analyze the mistakes and prepare a plan for a rematch. Therefore, it would be reckless to expect that the upcoming meeting will be an exact copy of the previous one. Dvalishvili has already shown how uncomfortable an opponent he can be for Yan: back then, the Georgian confidently controlled the course of the match and, according to the judges' notes, took all five rounds. His struggle, constant pressure and the ability not to slow down the pace are able to put the Russian in front of a difficult task again. Jan has already found working solutions, but Dvalishvili will certainly try to make adjustments and return the fight to its usual course. Taking into account his stamina, wrestling arsenal and motivation after a defeat, it is worth choosing a bet on the Georgian.

Our betting tip is Dvalishvili's victory in 2.65

Will the prediction win?

Betting predictions stat

Explore all statistics
Total tips12
% of profit-0.56%
Win percentage33.33%
Average coefficient1.6
Wins33.33%  (4)
Refunds0.00%  (0)
Loses66.67%  (8)
Total tips28
% of profit0.64%
Win percentage57.14%
Average coefficient2.15
Wins57.14%  (16)
Refunds0.00%  (0)
Loses42.86%  (12)
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