Renato Moicano - Tom Nolan: betting tip (cf 1.80) and bets on the fight

Current form

Renato Moicano got a chance to compete in the main event of the evening after his September duel with Brian Ortega was disrupted. However, the role of the main character of the tournament is not new for the Brazilian. In April, he already entered the cage in this status and met with Chris Duncan, the man he trained with. The romantic story about his teammates quickly ended: Moikano turned out to be stronger and in the second round forced his opponent to surrender with a stranglehold from the back. At the same time, he rehabilitated himself for his failure in the fight with Bene'il Dariusz.

There is a certain pattern in Moikano's career. He is good enough to test the ambitions of young applicants, but so far he has not been able to turn his experience into a permanent presence among the main applicants for the title. In professional sports, this role is called a gatekeeper: a fighter who finds out if a promising newcomer is really ready for the next level. With Duncan, this test did not end in favor of the young opponent. Now it's Nolan's turn.

The Brazilian has been competing professionally since 2010, managed to win the interim Jungle Fight featherweight title and went through an impressive path to the UFC. He won the first 11 fights of his career, and one fight ended without a result. The 37-year-old Moikano is currently ranked 12th in the lightweight rankings. He has 21 wins to his credit: two by knockout, 11 by submission and eight by judges' decisions, as well as seven defeats. The dry numbers hide the main advantage of the Brazilian — the ability to read an opponent and find weaknesses. He is especially dangerous in the stalls, where he is able to turn even a small mistake of his opponent into an excuse for an early end to the meeting.

Current form

Tom Nolan is eleven years younger, which means he potentially has the advantage of freshness and physical dynamism. In June, the Australian defeated Fares Ziam by unanimous decision and brought his UFC appearances to five wins with one loss. The only setback happened in the opening: Nicolas Motta stopped him with a technical knockout in the first round. After that, Nolan managed to recover and gradually gained momentum. The Australian is not limited to working for glasses. Last year, he forced Charlie Campbell to surrender, and in 2024 he defeated Victor Martinez by technical knockout. In total, he has 11 wins to his credit — five by knockout, one by submission and five by decision of the judges — with one defeat. Nolan is ranked 14th in the division.

His path to the UFC was quite traditional for a promising fighter: amateur tournaments, appearances in Australian promotions and victory in Dana White's Contender Series. In August 2023, Nolan knocked out Bogdan Grad in the first round and was awarded a contract with the world's leading fighting organization. However, the debut against Motta showed that the striking potential alone is not enough for success at the highest level.

Nolan's main problem is protection. He often misses dangerous shots, gets shaken up, and has to rely on resilience. The Australian looked noticeably more convincing against Ziam: he worked well with his feet, exhausted his opponent in the clinch and distributed his forces competently. But Moikano is an opponent of a completely different profile. If the Brazilian decides to move the fight to the floor, Nolan will have to answer questions that have arisen more than once in previous fights.