Sabalenka - Keys: betting tip for the Australian Open match

Australia
Aryna Sabalenka
Belarus
Australian Open WTA
rod-laver-arena

Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys will fight for the Australian Open title on January 25. The Belarusian tennis player is close to winning her third consecutive trophy in Melbourne. The American reached the final for the first time on local courts, has made more than one sensation in the tournament grid and is currently at the peak of her form. From our betting tip, you can find out how the events will develop on the court and what are the best bets to play on the game

Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Prediction and Betting Tips (25.01.2025)

Match announcement

Aryna Sabalenka

Belarus

Current form

From the very start of the season, Sabalenka joined the fight to retain the title of the world number one. Arina won the trophy in Brisbane, and reached the Australian Open final for the third year in a row. She played six matches in the tournament grid, winning five of them with an exact score of 2-0 in sets. Only in the quarterfinal match with Pavlyuchenkova did the Belarusian tennis player lose one set (6-2, 2-6, 6-3). In the semifinals, she met Paula Badosa. Some intrigue in that match was observed only in the first set, after which Arina completely seized the initiative and confidently won (6-4, 6-2).

Professional qualities

Sabalenka plays attacking tennis, she has excellent physical data, which allows her to lead the game. It should be noted that Arina now does not always strive to hit each ball powerfully, to finish each rally with a smash. More and more often you can see variety in her game. At the same time, her powerful forehand has not disappeared anywhere.

Current indicators in the tour

Sabalenka has been on an 11-match winning streak since the start of the year. She has won two trophies on the Melbourne courts and has not lost here since January 24, 2022, when she was defeated by Kaia Kanepi.

Interesting facts for betting

  • Sabalenka won five of her six matches en route to the final in Melbourne with a straight-sets score of 2-0.
  • In the three previous matches involving Arina, no more than nine games were played in the second set

Madison Keys

USA

Current form

Keys became one of the discoveries not only of the Australian Open, but also of the entire opening segment of the season. Let us recall that Madison won the title of the tournament in Adelaide on the eve of the start in Melbourne. On local courts, the American made it to the finals on a very difficult grid, playing three sets in four of her six matches. She has sensational victories over Rybakina in the 1/8 finals (6-3, 1-6, 6-3) and over Swiatek in the semi-finals (5-7, 6-1, 7-6). Keys is currently at the peak of her form, achieving success largely due to her bold attacking game, and her physical form is also fine.

Professional qualities

Madison plays super-aggressive tennis, always trying to finish rallies quickly, in one or two hits, since she doesn't have many chances for success in long rallies on the back line. Of course, it worth noting the American powerful forehand, which allows her to score many winners.

Current indicators in the tour

Since the beginning of the year, Keys has played 14 matches on tour, winning 13 of them. She is currently ranked 14th in the world, but will rise significantly higher next week, as she did not play in Melbourne last year.

Interesting facts for betting

  • Keys played three sets in four of her six matches en route to the final.
  • Keys lost to Sabalenka in her previous three head-to-head encounters.

Trends

Match Tie-Break Bet – Yes

In the last two head-to-head matches, the tennis players played two tie-breaks

3.40
3.40

Rate Set Result: 2>1

This scenario has played out in three of the five previous face-to-face meetings.

2.21
2.21

Tip and bets

1.62Keys with handicap (+5)

Sabalenka is extremely motivated to win her third title in a row in Melbourne, but her opponent in the final today is not easy. Keys is not only in peak form now, but can also calmly respond to Arina powerful blows, and she herself is capable of playing no less boldly and aggressively. In face-to-face matches, the Belarusian tennis player leads with a score of 4:1, but she has only won with a difference of more than five games once. We think there will be intrigue in the final, given her current form, the American can impose a fight.

Our prediction is a victory for Keys with a handicap of (+5) games with odds of 1.62

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1.84Total over 21

Bet on total

Let pay attention to the fact that in two of the last four head-to-head matches the tennis players played three sets. Both are now in excellent playing condition, are working well on their serve, and we may well see a protracted confrontation.

The second bet is total over 21 games for 1.84

Bet on the second set

In three of the five personal meetings, the most intense struggle unfolded in the second set, when more than nine games were played. We expect equal play in this game segment in the final today as well.

Betting Tip - total games in the second set over 9.5 with odds of 2.05

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