LiontipsReal Madrid vs Villarreal: Predictions (odds 4.25) and Betting Picks for the Spanish Championship Match on October 5, 2024
Command Analysis
Current Form
Real Madrid's impressive 36-match unbeaten streak came to an end on Wednesday evening with a 1-0 loss to Lille in the UEFA Champions League. Manager Carlo Ancelotti labeled this defeat as a significant wake-up call. However, they maintain an active 40-match unbeaten run in La Liga following a dramatic 1-1 draw against Atletico last weekend, where they conceded a late equalizer in stoppage time.
Aiming to avoid three consecutive winless matches for the first time since March 2023, the reigning league and European champions are expected to deliver a strong response at home. At the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, the Blancos have remained undefeated in La Liga since a 3-2 loss to Villarreal in April 2023. Additionally, the Whites have won all four league matches at this venue this season despite not being in top form, making Kylian Mbappé's return to full fitness potentially crucial.
Suspensions and Injuries
Currently sidelined are Alaba (knee injury), Ceballos (ankle injury), Courtois (muscle injury), and Díaz (thigh injury).
Notable Betting Trends
- Five of Mbappé's last six goals for Real have been scored at the Santiago Bernabéu.
His presence on the pitch today could significantly impact the game's dynamics, especially considering that three of those five goals came after the 65th minute.
- Real Madrid has not lost in La Liga over the past 40 matches.
Maintaining this unbeaten streak is critical for the champions, as the squad is filled with stars, leaving many wondering how they could have fallen to the relatively modest Lille by European standards.
Projected Line-up: Lunin – Modrić, Rüdiger, Militão, Carvajal – Tchouaméni, Valverde, Bellingham, Rodrygo – Mbappé, Vinícius.
Current Form
Villarreal has had an impressive start to their La Liga campaign, sitting third in the standings after eight rounds, trailing only Barcelona and Real Madrid. They secured two consecutive victories against Espanyol (2-1) and Las Palmas (3-1). With a total of 17 goals scored, matching their opponents this season and having lost just two of their last seven encounters, they can feel cautiously optimistic about continuing their strong start.
All signs point to a competitive match where defense may take a backseat, as the last two meetings at this venue resulted in five goals each. Goals have been a common theme for the Yellow Submarine on the road this season, having conceded just once across four away matches while remaining unbeaten due to their attacking style.
Injuries and Suspensions
Missing from the pitch will be Pedraza (injury), Foyth (knee injury), Kamabla (injury), Moreno (muscle injury), Pino (muscle injury), and Perez (injury).
Interesting Betting Trends
- In the last nine matches, both teams have scored in Villarreal's La Liga games
This trend is likely to continue in today's match as both teams possess ample strength and skill, capable of creating scoring opportunities while both struggle defensively, a concern for coaches but a delight for fans of high-scoring football.
- Alex Baena of Villarreal has provided 19 assists in La Liga since last season
Alex shows no signs of slowing down, having added to his tally with a goal and an assist after coming off the bench in the match against Las Palmas on Monday.
Projected Line-Up: Alcaido – Kiko Femenia, Albiol, Bailly, Cardona – Terrats, Comessana, Pareja – Suarez, Danjuma, Pino.
Trends
Bet Exact Score 3:1
This score has occurred in two of the last four meetings
6.50Bet Goals Both Halves – Yes
In 3 of the last 5 matches, Real scored in both halves
1.82Bet Corners: Total Over 9.5
This bet has hit in 3 of the last 5 home matches
1.88Bet Number 3 in the Score
This bet has been successful in three of the last six matches
1.65Tip and bets
Last season in their two La Liga clashes, the rivals delighted fans with a total of 13 goals, showcasing an exciting brand of football. Notably, Madrid scored eight of those goals. We anticipate a repeat of this thrilling scenario, which could lead to multiple attacking plays and scoring opportunities. The inclusion of Mbappé on the field is expected to further enhance the creative elements of the match.
Our prediction is over 3.5 total goals, and we recommend placing a bet on it at 1.81.
Match Outcome Bet
Real Madrid faced a tough challenge from their French opponent in the Champions League, yet the reigning champions remain strong contenders for victory due to their superior roster and player quality. However, we expect the visitors to display maximum focus today, enabling the "yellow team" to hold their ground and at least avoid a traditional heavy defeat.
Prediction - Real Madrid to win by two goals, with odds at 4.25.
Corner Bet
The anticipated surge of attacks and the desire to push for goals are likely to generate numerous set pieces. Moreover, we believe that breakthroughs down the flanks will result in a high number of corner kicks.
Prediction - total corners to exceed nine, available at odds of 1.94.
