LiontipsAtletico vs Real Madrid. Predictions (odds 7.20) and betting insights for the Spanish Championship match on September 29, 2024.
Command Analysis
Current Form
In the first major derby of the La Liga 2024/25 season, capital rivals Atletico and Real Madrid will clash as both teams chase leader Barcelona. After their 1-0 victory over Celta Vigo on Thursday, the hosts are trailing the visitors by two points ahead of the 237th edition of the Madrid derby.
Following a 3-1 win in last season's corresponding match, the Indians enter this game confident of securing another victory. Under Diego Simeone, the team has made a strong start at home, having yet to concede in La Liga matches here this season. The hosts have also lost just one of their last nine official home matches, scoring at least twice in three of their four games in this competition.
Injuries and Suspensions
Unavailable players include Barrios (muscle injury), Aspilicueta (calf injury), and Lemar (injury).
Interesting Betting Trends
- Julian Alvarez from Atletico knows what it's like to beat Real, scoring in a 4-0 win while playing for Manchester City in May 2023.
All four of his recent goals for the club were netted after the 80th minute.
- Atletico has lost just one of their last nine official home matches.
Notably, the Mattress Makers have managed to score at least two goals in three of their four matches in the current league.
Projected Lineup: Moldavan – Aspilicueta, Normand, Witsel, Lino – Koke, De Paul, Llorente, Riquelme – Griezmann, Sorloth.
Current Form
Real Madrid took an early lead against Alaves on Tuesday, going up by three goals, but faced a tense finish after conceding twice in the closing moments, ending the match 3-2. Manager Carlo Ancelotti expressed satisfaction with the team's performance prior to the late drama, praising his improving squad that remains unbeaten in La Liga this season.
Despite a strong performance, they have only won one of their last five head-to-head encounters. The news of Kylian Mbappe potentially missing time due to a thigh injury is a significant blow ahead of the derby at a venue where the whites suffered their last league defeat. Additionally, the Metropolitano Stadium is one of the few places where the reigning La Liga champions have struggled recently, winning just one of their last six visits.
Injuries and Suspensions
Unavailable players include Alaba (knee injury), Camavinga (knee injury), Ceballos (ankle injury), Mbappe (Achilles injury), and Dias (thigh injury).
Interesting Betting Trends
- With Mbappe out, Rodrigo may take on additional responsibilities in attack.
This seems likely given that he has scored in each of the last three matches for Real, with both goals coming after halftime.
- Only one of the last eleven matches between these teams has seen no goals scored before the break.
Today, we anticipate an exciting showdown in Sunday's concluding match, as the Madrid derby ranks among the most heated and interesting battles in La Liga.
Projected Lineup: Courtois – Modric, Rudiger, Militao, Carvajal – Tchouameni, Valverde, Bellingham, Rodrigo – Mbappe, Vinicius.
Trends
Bet Exact Score 0:2
This score has occurred in four of the last six meetings
6.50Bet Goals in Both Halves - No
In 3 of the last 5 Atlético matches, goals were scored in just one half
1.82Bet Corners: Total Under 9.5
In 3 of the last 5 home matches, this bet was successful
1.88Bet Digit 0 in the Score
This bet has been successful in three of the last six matches
1.65Tip and bets
This match promises to be a highlight of the round, generating significant interest in Spain. It represents not just the Madrid derby but a clash between the top teams vying for first place. Currently, there is a different leader, yet we back Real Madrid, who, even without Mbappe, look fantastic and are poised to avenge their defeat at this venue in the last championship, thanks to their talented players and coaching staff.
Our prediction is a victory for Real Madrid, and we are placing our bet on this with odds of 2.50.
Match Outcome Bet
Experienced coach Diego Simeone knows how to prepare his team for a decisive and crucial battle, even without stepping onto the field. Carlo Ancelotti’s talent is also unquestionable – the reigning champions of Spain are ready to take control of the match, and that’s exactly the mindset they will instill in their players. We believe that the nominal visitors will not only win but will do so convincingly and with a solid margin.
Prediction – Real Madrid to win by two goals, with odds of 7.20
Yellow Cards Bet
This match is unlikely to be any exception and could lead to a flurry of fouls, some of which may be harshly penalized by the referee. Additionally, in two out of the last four meetings, the referee did not show fewer than four yellow cards.
Prediction – total yellow cards over four. This option is available at odds of 1.71
