LiontipsVillarreal vs Atletico. Betting Tip (odds 3.70) and bets on the match of the Spanish championship
Command Analysis
Current form
Villarreal will start the season knowing they won’t have the distraction of European football after finishing a lowly eighth in La Liga last term. That’s the first time this has happened since 2019/20, following a dreadful start to the campaign in which they won just one of their first seven home games and will be looking to avoid that now. The chances are slim, given that the Yellow Submarine have won on the opening day of the season just once in the last nine campaigns and their record against Atletico is also disappointing, with six head-to-head meetings without a win. Add to that the loss of goalkeeper Filip Jorgensen and striker Alexander Sørloth in the summer transfer window.
Disqualifications and injuries
Pedraza (injury), Foyth (knee injury) and Suarez (muscle injury) will not be able to take to the football field.
Interesting trends for betting
- Both teams have scored in five of their last six head-to-head matches, with the home team winning just once on the day
After his 2023/24 season was marred by a serious knee injury, Yeremy Pino has played a full pre-season to bolster Villarreal's attacking ranks. Each of his last four club goals have been his first for his team, one of which came against Atletico Madrid in August 2022.
- Villarreal have failed to beat Atletico at home for six games in a row
The first matches are difficult for the Valencians, and the opponent today is serious and it is unlikely that we should expect an easy game. Nevertheless, the "yellows" do not need to play in European Cups and all their efforts can be thrown into Primera and the Spanish Cup. In addition, the last friendly match against Brighton (0:4) brings sad thoughts to the fans.
Estimated line-up : Alcoado - Kiko Femenia, Albiol, Bayi, Cardona - Terrats, Comesana, Pareja - Suarez, Danjuma, Pino.
Current form
Striker Alexander Sørloth moved from Valencia to the capital this summer, where he complements Atlético and their acquisitions of Julian Alvarez and Robin Le Normand. The Indians have not been able to find a smooth transfer market, as they still have problems with Chelsea and the contracts of Conor Gallagher and João Félix. However, Diego Simeone said every game is important and he is going to win on Monday to turn around a disappointing season that saw them fail to finish in the top three for the first time since 2011/12. Simeone is also worried about the huge 19-point lead over the champions and playing away from home.
Disqualifications and injuries
Out of the game is Marcos Paulo (knee injury).
Interesting trends for betting
- Atletico's Antoine Griezmann has scored as many times as he has been booked (six) in his previous 26 head-to-head encounters
The Frenchman is one of the leaders and the hope of the fans. In addition, it is Antoine who has repeatedly become the main protagonist and is able to lead. We do not exclude that today he will also be one of the main heroes of the match.
- Atletico picked up just 27 points from their league trips last season - some 17 fewer than Real Madrid
Madrid played poorly away from home last year, and the last time they lost at this stadium was in 2018. In addition, both matches of the last championship were won by Diego Simeone and his team
Estimated line-up : Moldovan – Azpilitueta, Normand, Witsel, Lino – Koke, de Paul, Llorente, Riquelmy – Griezmann, Sorloth.
Trends
Bet Exact score 2:2
Four of the last six head-to-head matches have seen this score
6.50Bet Goals in both halves – yes
In 3 of Villarreal's last 5 matches, goals were scored in both halves
1.82Bet Corners: Total Under 9.5
In 3 of the last 5 matches of the hosts such a bet took place
1.88Bet Number 2 in the score
In three of the last six matches this bet has played out
1.65Tip and bets
We believe that this match may be the highlight of the first round – old rivals are meeting, for whom this game will be fundamental and important from the tournament point of view. The hosts will have serious support from the stands and will not sit back in defense. The attack potential of the "mattress makers" is very high, which has been proven more than once. In five of the last six face-to-face duels, both clubs distinguished themselves, which we expect today.
Our prediction is both teams will score and we are betting on it at 1.61
Bet on the outcome
Today, both clubs have an excellent chance to start successfully, given the results of all the leaders, and reach the top positions. The guests look more powerful, but the tournament motivation and desire of the "yellow submarine" is enough to take control of the game and ultimately achieve a positive result. In addition, the trends in the first round and the huge number of peaceful outcomes may well continue here.
Prediction - a draw in the match for 3.70
Yellow Card Betting
This fight will most likely not be an exception and may lead to a lot of violations, some of which may be severely condemned by the referee. Moreover, in two of the last four fights, the referee did not show less than four yellow cards.
Betting Tip - total yellow cards over four. This option can be found for 1.71
