In the central match of the 12th round of the Primera, Atletico will host Barcelona. The rivals are leading in La Liga, with the Catalans ahead by two points. Accordingly, according to the results of the upcoming game, there may be a change of leader if the mattresses get the victory. Diego Simeone's team has never lost to anyone at home in the Example, including beating Real Madrid in the derby. We figure out the betting tip, who has the best chance of scoring three points today and which optimal bets to choose
Command Analysis
Atletico Madrid
Current form
Following the results of 11 rounds, Atletico is in second place in the Example, two points behind Barcelona. Obviously, the mattress pads have clearly indicated their claims that they are ready to fight with Barcelona and Real Madrid for gold medals this season. Moreover, Diego Simeone's men have already beaten the cream in the derby on their own field (2:1). There has not been a single defeat at home since the start of the La Liga season: four wins and one draw.
Atletico is approaching the upcoming match after a difficult match in the Champions League against Bayern Munich (0:2). The home field factor did not help here, in the second half the mattress pads could not withstand the pressure of Munich and conceded two goals. In the Champions League, after four rounds in the standings, Madrid occupy only 23rd place with four points.
Among the significant losses in the squad, we note Christian Romero, who has complications after an injury to the adductor muscle.
Disqualifications and injuries
Only Romero is in the infirmary at Atletico.
Interesting betting trends
Since the beginning of the season, Atletico has not suffered a single defeat on its home field in the Primera
In the last four matches, Atletico's players have been offside more often than their opponents.
In three of the five previous matches involving mattress pads, a draw was recorded in the first half.
Approximate line–up: Oblak – Llorente, Pubil, Gantzko, Grimaldo – Juhlmann, Barrios - J. Simeone, Lee Kang In, Baena – Alvarez.
Barcelona
Current form
Barcelona has had an impressive 11-match winning streak since the start of the season, taking into account all tournaments. However, in October, two defeats in a row from top rivals followed at once. First, the Catalans lost to PSG on the road in the Champions League with a score of 2:4. Then there was a defeat at the Camp Nou in El Clasico from Real Madrid (1:2). For failures, the blue-garnet fully rehabilitated, beating Alaves in La Liga (6:1) and Feyenoord in the Champions League (3:0).
The defeat against Real Madrid did not lead to the loss of the first place in the Example. However, now the gap from Atletico is only two points, and from creamy - three. Barcelona has no equal in attack: 46 goals scored in 11 matches in La Liga. Moreover, for the wards of Hansi Flick, there is no big difference where to score: they have 22 goals on the road with only five goals conceded. Note that in nine of the ten winning matches in the Example, the Catalans scored at least three goals.
The main personnel loss in the squad is Rodri. The midfielder has a muscle injury and will not be able to play in Madrid. Even despite the solid depth of the squad in the development of attacks in the center of the field, it will not be easy without this player.
Disqualifications and injuries
Rodri, Olmo, Espart, Bardagji and Kunde will not play due to injuries. E. Garcia and Christensen are in question.
Interesting betting trends
At least six goals have been scored in three of the last five matches against Barcelona.
Barcelona won in the first half in three of the previous five matches.
Barcelona players fouled more often than their opponents in four of the last five matches.
Approximate line-up: J. Garcia – Farinhas, Cubarsi, Martin, Cancelo – Pedri, Bernal – Yamal, Fermin, Gordon – Rafinha.
On their own field, Atletico has not lost in the Primera this season, including beating Real Madrid in the derby. On the other hand, on the eve of the Champions League, the mattresses at home could not cope with the onslaught of Bayern. It definitely won't be easier today, given the opponent's powerful attack. The Catalans scored 46 goals, 22 of them in foreign arenas. The away game factor is definitely not an obstacle for the blue-Garnet.
Hansi Flick's team knows very well how to play against Atletico. Last season, the rivals crossed paths with each other six times, taking into account the matches in the Primera, in the Champions League and in the Spanish Cup. In four cases, the Catalans were stronger, with two victories coming just at the Metropolitano. We believe that Barcelona is deservedly the favorite in the bookmaker's line, will score three points and gain a foothold in first place in the Example before the international break.
Our betting tip is for Barcelona to win by a factor of 1.81
Despite the solid attacking potential of Atletico and Barcelona, the recent face-to-face matches have not been extremely productive. In the last four face-to-face meetings, no more than three goals have been scored. Today is the key match for the interim first place, hardly anyone will take an unjustified risk and strive to defeat the opponent at any cost. We don't expect more than three goals scored in the leaderboard match.
The second bet is a total of less than 3.5 goals with a coefficient of 2.05
Betting on corners
When choosing a corner bet, we rely on the guests and their trend. In eight of the ten previous matches, Barcelona played more serves from the corner flag than their opponents. We expect the Catalans to spend a lot of time at other people's gates today and win once again by the corners.
Prediction – Barcelona win on corners with a coefficient of 1.60
Liontips
Jan Oblak