LiontipsBayern Munich - PSG: betting tip (cf 3.00) and bets on the Champions League match
Command Analysis
Current form
Before leaving for Paris, Bayern had only one defeat in the current Champions League draw, when they lost to Arsenal in London with a score of 1.:3. With PSG in the first semi-final, the earlier problems in defense prevented a positive result. Even four goals scored did not save from a 4 defeat.:5. In general, the Reds' defense has often suffered serious setbacks lately.: three goals conceded were from Real Madrid in the second leg of the quarterfinals, they conceded twice from Stuttgart, three times each from Mainz and Heidenheim in the Bundesliga. In most cases, these failures could be compensated for by attacking, but it is quite obvious that this cannot continue on a permanent basis. Especially when you have the reigning Champions League winner as your opponent.
At first glance, it is not difficult to win back the difference of one goal for Bayern, and even at home. Another thing is that in their entire history, Munich have only managed to qualify for the Champions League final once out of ten after losing the first semi-final game. The statistics are at least alarming.
In the Bundesliga, Bayern became the champion ahead of schedule. Vincent Kompany actively uses rotation, most often you can see how he releases the leaders after a break. Hence the constant comebacks: we managed to snatch victories from Freiburg (3:2) and Mainz (4:3). Munich miraculously saved a draw with Heidenheim the day before, scoring the third goal in the 100th minute (3-3).
Disqualifications and injuries
Gnabry, Karl, Guerreiro and Mike are in the Bayern infirmary.
Interesting betting trends
- In three consecutive matches with Bayern, at least six goals were scored.
- In five of the previous seven matches, Bayern had won in the first half.
- The Munich team has hit the opponent's goal more than twice in seven previous home matches.
Approximate line–up: Neuer – Stanisic, Upamecano, Ta, Limer – Kimmich, Pavlovic - Olice, Musiala, Diaz – Kane.
Current form
PSG failed to fully prove themselves at the league stage, when they finished only in 11th place and did not receive a ticket immediately to the 1/8 finals. Luis Enrique's team suffered one of the two defeats from Bayern Munich on their own field (1:2). The Parisians didn't have any big problems with the extra round in the playoffs. Moreover, they have noticeably improved towards the end of the season. Four wins in a row with a total score of 12:2 in the 1/8 finals and in the quarterfinals over Chelsea and Liverpool can hardly be attributed only to the decline of the rivals. In these confrontations, PSG demonstrated a clear realization of the created moments. So, Liverpool scored six shots on target and scored two goals in each of the two matches. With Chelsea, they scored a total of 13 shots on target in two games – eight goals.
It was the clear implementation that was in many ways the key to success in the home meeting with Bayern: five shots on target – five goals scored. During the game, the Parisians led 5-2, but they allowed their opponent to score two goals, and they played too passively in the second half, of course, to Munich's considerable credit. With a difference of more than one goal, Luis Enrique's team could have felt more comfortable in the second leg. Nevertheless, it should be noted that in 14 out of 17 cases in European competitions, Parisians advanced to the next stage if they secured a one-goal lead in the first match.
In Ligue 1, PSG has not yet secured an early championship, but a six-point gap from Lens three rounds before the finish line hardly leaves hope for an opponent who often loses points himself. In the last round, the Parisians, playing far from the main squad, parted in peace with Lorient (2:2).
Disqualifications and injuries
Hakimi, Chevalier and Njantu will not be able to help their team.
Interesting betting trends
- In five of the last six matches, PSG players fouled more often than their opponents.
- PSG won at the end of the second half in 9 of the last 11 away matches.
- At least three goals have been scored in five consecutive matches with the Parisians.
Approximate squad: Safonov – Zaire-Emery, Marquinhos, Pacho, Mendes – Ruiz, Vitinha, Neves – Douai, Dembele, Kvaratskhelia.
Trends
The bet is an accurate score of 2:2
In two of the previous 14 PSG matches, such a score was recorded
Bet 1 half: PSG victory
Bayern lost to their opponents in three consecutive matches after the opening 45 minutes.
Bet Bayern Victory on corners with a handicap (-2.5)
In 28 of the last 32 matches, Bayern have taken more corners than their opponents.
The bet is PSG's victory on yellow cards
PSG players have received more yellow cards than their opponents in four of the last five matches.
Tip and bets
The first game in Paris demonstrated that none of the opponents has a tangible advantage. PSG continued to delight their fans with a clear execution, hitting five shots on target and scoring five goals. Bayern still relies on their attack.
It is not a big problem for Vincent Kompany's team to win back the gap of one goal, the Munich attack is always capable of exploits. Another thing is that the frequent failures in defense have been alarming lately. Taking into account all the tournaments in the previous six matches, the Reds conceded 16 goals. It is already difficult here to compensate for such failures only by attacking, especially when the current Champions League winner is in the competition, who has noticeably improved towards the end of the season and punishes any opponent for the slightest mistakes. We believe that Luis Enrique's players are able to maintain their advantage and advance to the finals.
Our betting tip is for PSG to win with an Asian handicap (+1) for a coefficient of 1.88
Bet on the total
In Paris, PSG and Bayern scored nine goals between them, setting a record for performance in the Champions League semifinals. Against the background of such a vivid scoring extravaganza, we see clearly high expectations of another game with an abundance of goals scored in the second leg in the bookmaker line. Meanwhile, a ticket to the finals is at stake today, we do not think that the opponents will play completely without regard to defense. We don't expect more than four goals scored.
The second bet is a total of less than 4.5 goals with a coefficient of 1.73
Combined bid
From a tactical point of view, PSG is in a better position, the guests are satisfied with a draw, they can play second, punishing Munich for defensive mistakes. Luis Enrique has repeatedly demonstrated his ability to play tactically competently, starting from rivals, away from home. Away from both Chelsea and Liverpool, the Parisians achieved victories and held off their opponents in attack. We expect that PSG will not lose at least today in Munich, and at the same time, no more than five goals will be scored in the match.
The betting tip is that PSG will not lose and the total is less than 5.5 goals with a coefficient of 3.00
