LiontipsKhachanov vs Carballe's Baena. Predictions and Betting Tips for the ATP Beijing Match on September 27, 2024.
Command Analysis
Current Form
Karen Khachanov has lost confidence in himself. He heads into the match against Carlos Alcaraz with a three-match losing streak. His last victory came at the Cincinnati tournament where he defeated Francisco Cerundolo in the first round.
Last week, Karen had a disappointing performance in Hangzhou, losing in the first round to Chinese player Yunchaokate in three sets.
Professional Skills
When Khachanov is on his game, he is difficult to stop. He plays aggressively and breaks down his opponents' resistance. However, lately, he has been far from his optimal form and often loses focus.
Current Tour Statistics
Khachanov has historically performed well on outdoor hard courts, but his win-loss record this season stands at 12-11. This result is not the best, placing the Russian at 27th in the world rankings.
Interesting Betting Insights
Khachanov has lost his last three matches, winning a set in two of those encounters. The Russian is determined to break his losing streak, fighting hard in every match, although he doesn't always find success.
Current Form
This season, Carballes Baena has played numerous matches on clay, which is his preferred surface, so he avoids missing any tournaments held on it.
However, his performance on hard courts has been significantly poorer. For instance, in Beijing, he didn't qualify, losing in the second round to Pavel Kotov. Fortunately for him, due to the organizers, Roberto was granted a "lucky loser" status and will still compete in the main draw.
Professional Skills
The Spaniard's strategy revolves around sending the ball to the opponent's side and waiting for an error. He struggles to play aggressively, making it difficult to expect successful outcomes on hard courts.
Current Tour Performance
Even though clay is his favored surface, Carballes Baena had a strong showing last week in Hangzhou. He reached the quarterfinals there, marking his eighth victory of the season on this surface.
Interesting Betting Insights
Typically, the opening sets in Carballes Baena's matches are uneventful. In three out of four of his recent matches, no more than nine games were played in the first set. So, don't expect a fierce battle right from the start.
Trends
Bet Total under 2.5 sets
In 4 of the last 6 matches, Khachanov had no set exchanges
1.52Bet 1st set: total under 9.5 games
In 3 of the last 4 matches, the Spanish player scored no more than 9 games in the first set
1.78Tip and bets
Khachanov is expected to defeat this opponent easily. The Spaniard is playing on a surface that doesn't suit him and is currently out of form. If Karen can get himself focused for the match, he should face no issues.
Our prediction is Khachanov to win with a handicap of (-3.5) games at 1.80
Total Bet
It is unlikely that Carballes Baena will be able to compete effectively against Khachanov on a surface that is not suited to his style of play. Therefore, we doubt that this match will produce a high total.
Prediction - total under 22.5 games at 1.72
Tiebreak Bet
Don’t expect Carballes Baena to reach a tiebreak in any of the sets. This has not occurred in 3 of his last 4 matches.
Prediction - no tiebreak at 1.65
