LiontipsFrance - Italy: betting tip (cf 2.12) and bets on the Nations League match
Command Analysis
Current form
The era of Didier Deschamps in the French national team ended after the World Cup. At the World Cup, the tricolours confidently advanced to the semifinals, but could not match Spain (0:2). In the match for the third place, they had a scoring extravaganza with England, but in the end they lost 4:6 and were left without medals.
Under the leadership of Zinedine Zidane, France goes without losing points after two rounds. They managed to beat Turkey and Belgium with the same score 1-0 in away matches. And there was no talk of bright football with an emphasis on attack. The national team played pragmatically, actively used counterpressing, the players, after losing the ball in the other half of the field, immediately covered the opponent, entered into the selection of the ball. It was in this style that Mbappe scored a goal against Turkey.
In the match against Belgium, the tricolours played without Mbappe, who was injured and will not play today either. There were concerns that it would be possible to achieve a positive result, but the depth of the squad played a crucial role. The Belgians managed to put the squeeze on them at the very end, with Olisa, who replaced them, scoring a goal. Let's note the total advantage of the French in possession of the ball (65% of the playing time), the opponent scored only two shots on target.
Disqualifications and injuries
Zaire-Emery, Saliba, T. Hernandez, Konate and Mbappe are injured. Tyuram, Tchuameni and Kante are out of the application.
Interesting betting trends
- In three of the last five matches, the French national team drew 0-0 in the first half.
- In four of the five previous French matches, there was no goal exchange.
- More than three offsides were recorded in three of the four previous matches of the French national team.
Approximate line–up: Menyan – Kunde, Upamecano, Lacroix, Truffert – Cherky, Kone, Rabiot - Olice, Dembele, Barkola.
Current form
Italy has started a new Nations League draw under the leadership of Roberto Mancini. It was with him that the national team achieved the most significant success in recent times – it won the gold medals of Euro 2020. The return of the famous coach was unsuccessful. In the first round, Squadra Azzurra lost outright to Belgium (0:2). The score could have been devastating, saved more than once in the goal by Donnarumma. You could see the constant loss of the ball, gaps between the lines, which the Belgians took full advantage of, running away to counterattack.
In the second round with Turkey on the road, the Italians achieved a convincing victory with a score of 4:1. This time, Mancini's wards immediately marked their advantage, immediately seized the initiative, by the 27th minute they were leading 3-0 in the score and had no problems winning. It is unlikely that the French will allow the guests to play the first number right from the start today. The scenario of the game against Turkey is clearly not going to happen again, given that the tricolours themselves rely on ball control and possession.
In all the matches in the League of Nations, Roberto Mancini uses different combinations of players. He obviously saved the leaders for the match against France. Nicolo Barella, Gianluca Mancini and Daniel Maldini did not play against Turkey, and they are likely to play today.
Disqualifications and injuries
Italy's injured list includes Dimarco, Locatelli, Cristante, Cambiaso, Meret, Spinazzola, Buongiorno, Zagnolo and Raspadori.
Interesting betting trends
- In three of the last five matches, the Italian national team won at the end of the first half.
- No more than two goals have been scored in four of the Italians' previous five matches.
- Italy's players have been offside more often than their opponents in three of the last four matches.
Approximate composition: Donnarumma – Di Lorenzo, D. Mancini, Bastoni, Calafiori – Barella, Doumbia, Frattesi – Maldini, Keen, Cambiagi.
Trends
Bet Italy's Victory on offsides with a handicap (0)
In three of the last four matches, the Italian national team players were offside more often than their opponents.
Bet Goals in both halves – no
In three of the five previous French games, goals were not scored in each of the halves.
The exact score is 1:0
The French national team has scored the last two victories with this score
The Total Yellow Cardrateis less than 3.5
This bet has played in 10 of the last 11 matches of the French national team.
Tip and bets
There are two rounds in the League of Nations behind us, in which France and Italy played under the guidance of new coaches. We can already draw some intermediate conclusions. Zinedine Zidane relies on a pragmatic approach, ball control and active counterpressing. The tricolours have no desire to achieve a crushing victory at any cost, the main thing is the result, three points. It is characteristic that the changes in the squad, the absence of Mbappe, do not change the overall tactical pattern.
There are more questions about Italians with Roberto Mancini. With Turkey, we managed to immediately identify our advantage and play the first number, which led to a confident victory. This did not happen with Belgium, the opponent did not allow them to take the initiative, and in the end they could not even score. In Paris, given the game of the French, it is unlikely that the Italians will be able to dictate their terms, they will have to adapt to the tricolor. In this scenario, there is a high probability that there will not be an abundance of goals scored.
Our betting tip is a total of less than three goals for a coefficient of 2.12
Betting on the outcome
France deservedly plays the role of the favorite in the line of bookmakers. And it's not just the home field factor, but also the depth of the squad. Even without Kylian Mbappe, the tricolours are able to cope with any opponent in their path, play their football, act first and put the squeeze on the opponent, as was the case with Belgium. At the same time, we have not seen a single confident victory with Zidane at the helm. It is unlikely that the Italians will allow themselves to lose in Paris with a difference of more than one goal.
The second bet is the victory of the Italian national team with an Asian handicap (+1.5) with a coefficient of 1.73
Betting on corners
France relies on total ball control, spends a lot of time at other people's gates. Unsurprisingly, in 10 of the 11 previous matches, the tricolours played more serves from the corner flag than their opponents. We expect that the French national team will surely win on the corners today.
Prediction – France wins on corners with a handicap (-2.5) with a coefficient of 1.96
