The first round match of the African Cup of Nations qualification will be held in the Nigerian city of Uyo. Nigeria will host Madagascar on September 25. Will the hosts be able to win and what bets will they play? The answer is in our betting tip
Command Analysis
Nigeria
Nigeria again failed to qualify for the World Cup, losing in the play-off matches to the DR Congo national team. But at the 2026 African Cup of Nations, the national team won bronze medals. In their last friendly match, Eric Schell's team lost 1-2 to Portugal. Overall, in the last five meetings, the team has scored two wins over Jamaica (3:0) and Zimbabwe (2:0) and twice drawn 2-2 draws with Poland and Jordan.
Madagascar
Madagascar is one of the outsiders of African football and has never participated in the World Cup. The national team's highest achievement is reaching the quarterfinals of the African Cup of Nations in 2019. In the last game, Corentin Martens' team suffered a crushing defeat from Morocco 0:4, and earlier they exchanged goals with Equatorial Guinea (1:1).
After a successful performance in the African Cup of Nations, the Nigerian national team played five friendly matches, in which they looked confident and won two victories with a difference of several goals. Madagascar is capable of responding to the opponent, but in the last two games it has not won and scored only one goal. Eric Schell's team lost 0-2 in the last face-to-face meeting and have a chance to take revenge today. We expect that the African Brazilians will take advantage of a more powerful squad and win a convincing victory.
Betting Tip – Asian handicap (-1.5) for Nigeria with a coefficient of 1.65
Statistical estimation based on historical data. It is not a bet, forecast, or investment recommendation. 18+
Trends
The bet is an accurate score of 2:0
5.00
In 2 of the last 4 meetings, the hosts won with a "dry" score
Betting1st half: Nigeria's victory
1.55
In 2 of the 4 games that have taken place, the "African Brazilians" won in the first half.
Live trends
Outcome
Probability
Model odds
Nigeria
94,21%
1.06
XDraw
5,6%
17.85
Madagascar
0,19%
529.09
Double chance
Outcome
Probability
Model odds
1X
99,81%
1.00
12
94,4%
1.06
X2
5,79%
17.27
Total 3.5
Outcome
Probability
Model odds
Over
15,54%
6.43
Under
84,46%
1.18
Next goal
Outcome
Probability
Model odds
Nigeria
9,46%
10.57
Madagascar
6,08%
16.45
No goal
84,46%
1.18
Handicap 0.5
Outcome
Probability
Model odds
Nigeria -0.5
94,21%
1.06
Madagascar +0.5
5,79%
17.27
Handicap 1.5
Outcome
Probability
Model odds
Nigeria -1.5
9,18%
10.90
Madagascar +1.5
90,82%
1.10
Live commentary
Match ends, Nigeria 2, Madagascar 1.
Second Half ends, Nigeria 2, Madagascar 1.
94'Rayan Raveloson (Madagascar) wins a free kick in the defensive half.
94'Foul by Taiwo Awoniyi (Nigeria).
93'Nicolas Fontaine (Madagascar) is shown the yellow card.
93'Foul by Nicolas Fontaine (Madagascar).
93'Bruno Onyemaechi (Nigeria) wins a free kick in the defensive half.
91'Attempt missed. Moses Simon (Nigeria) left footed shot from the left side of the box misses to the right. Assisted by Alex Iwobi.
91'Fourth official has announced 4 minutes of added time.
87'Morgan Jean-Pierre (Madagascar) wins a free kick in the defensive half.
87'Foul by Moses Usor (Nigeria).
87'Substitution, Nigeria. Bright Osayi-Samuel replaces Ola Aina.
85'Foul by Nicolas Randriamanampisoa (Madagascar).
85'Moses Usor (Nigeria) wins a free kick on the right wing.
84'Substitution, Madagascar. Roman Ferber replaces Hakim Abdallah.
84'Delay over. They are ready to continue.
84'Substitution, Madagascar. Loïc Lapoussin replaces Marco Ilaimaharitra.
82'Delay in match because of an injury Ehsan Kari (Madagascar).
82'Ehsan Kari (Madagascar) wins a free kick in the defensive half.
82'Foul by Moses Simon (Nigeria).
80'Foul by Warren Caddy (Madagascar).
80'Wilfred Ndidi (Nigeria) wins a free kick in the defensive half.
79'Nicolas Fontaine (Madagascar) wins a free kick in the defensive half.
79'Foul by Bruno Onyemaechi (Nigeria).
76'Foul by Warren Caddy (Madagascar).
76'Calvin Bassey (Nigeria) wins a free kick in the defensive half.
74'Tolu Arokodare (Nigeria) hits the left post with a left footed shot from the left side of the box. Assisted by Alex Iwobi.
73'Delay over. They are ready to continue.
71'Delay in match because of an injury Rayan Raveloson (Madagascar).
70'Substitution, Madagascar. Nicolas Fontaine replaces Ryan Ponti.
70'Substitution, Madagascar. Nicolas Randriamanampisoa replaces Clément Couturier.
69'Substitution, Nigeria. Tolu Arokodare replaces Ademola Lookman.
69'Substitution, Nigeria. Taiwo Awoniyi replaces George Ilenikhena.
69'Foul by Sandro Trémoulet (Madagascar).
69'George Ilenikhena (Nigeria) wins a free kick in the attacking half.
67'Substitution, Madagascar. Warren Caddy replaces El Hadary Raheriniaina.
65'Goal! Nigeria 2, Madagascar 1. Moses Usor (Nigeria) left footed shot from the right side of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Semi Ajayi following a fast break.
64'Corner, Madagascar. Conceded by Semi Ajayi.
64'Attempt blocked. Hakim Abdallah (Madagascar) left footed shot from the centre of the box is blocked. Assisted by Mathieu Acapandié.
62'Attempt missed. Moses Usor (Nigeria) right footed shot from the right side of the box misses to the right. Assisted by Moses Simon with a cross.
61'Substitution, Nigeria. Moses Usor replaces Samuel Chukwueze.
61'Substitution, Nigeria. Moses Simon replaces Akor Adams.
58'Delay over. They are ready to continue.
57'Delay in match because of an injury Marco Ilaimaharitra (Madagascar).
57'Ademola Lookman (Nigeria) is shown the yellow card for a bad foul.
57'Marco Ilaimaharitra (Madagascar) wins a free kick in the defensive half.
57'Foul by Ademola Lookman (Nigeria).
56'Attempt saved. Calvin Bassey (Nigeria) header from the right side of the six yard box is saved in the bottom right corner by Geordan Dupire (Madagascar). Assisted by Ademola Lookman with a cross.
55'Corner, Nigeria. Conceded by Ryan Ponti.
55'Attempt blocked. Ademola Lookman (Nigeria) right footed shot from the centre of the box is blocked.
53'Clément Couturier (Madagascar) wins a free kick in the defensive half.
53'Foul by Wilfred Ndidi (Nigeria).
53'Attempt missed. Alex Iwobi (Nigeria) right footed shot from outside the box is too high. Assisted by Ademola Lookman.
52'Attempt missed. Akor Adams (Nigeria) left footed shot from the left side of the box misses to the left. Assisted by Ademola Lookman.
50'Ehsan Kari (Madagascar) wins a free kick in the defensive half.
50'Foul by Akor Adams (Nigeria).
48'Corner, Nigeria. Conceded by Marco Ilaimaharitra.
46'Offside, Nigeria. Ademola Lookman is caught offside.
46'Foul by Hakim Abdallah (Madagascar).
46'Calvin Bassey (Nigeria) wins a free kick in the defensive half.
46'Second Half begins Nigeria 1, Madagascar 1.
First Half ends, Nigeria 1, Madagascar 1.
47'Attempt missed. George Ilenikhena (Nigeria) header from the centre of the box is too high. Assisted by Samuel Chukwueze with a cross.
46'Goal! Nigeria 1, Madagascar 1. George Ilenikhena (Nigeria) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Alex Iwobi.
46'Fourth official has announced 2 minutes of added time.
44'Corner, Nigeria. Conceded by Geordan Dupire.
44'Attempt saved. George Ilenikhena (Nigeria) left footed shot from the right side of the six yard box is saved in the bottom right corner by Geordan Dupire (Madagascar). Assisted by Calvin Bassey.
42'Corner, Nigeria. Conceded by Ryan Ponti.
37'Offside, Nigeria. Bruno Onyemaechi is caught offside.
36'Geordan Dupire (Madagascar) is shown the yellow card.
35'Morgan Jean-Pierre (Madagascar) wins a free kick in the defensive half.
35'Foul by Ola Aina (Nigeria).
35'Attempt blocked. Akor Adams (Nigeria) left footed shot from the centre of the box is blocked.
35'Attempt missed. Akor Adams (Nigeria) left footed shot from the centre of the box misses to the right.
34'Foul by Hakim Abdallah (Madagascar).
34'Calvin Bassey (Nigeria) wins a free kick in the defensive half.
34'Foul by Akor Adams (Nigeria).
34'Geordan Dupire (Madagascar) wins a free kick in the defensive half.
32'Ryan Ponti (Madagascar) wins a free kick in the attacking half.
32'Foul by Wilfred Ndidi (Nigeria).
31'Attempt missed. George Ilenikhena (Nigeria) header from the centre of the box is too high. Assisted by Samuel Chukwueze with a cross.
30'Attempt missed. Wilfred Ndidi (Nigeria) header from the centre of the box is too high. Assisted by Alex Iwobi with a cross.
30'Attempt blocked. Akor Adams (Nigeria) right footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Assisted by Bruno Onyemaechi.
27'Foul by El Hadary Raheriniaina (Madagascar).
27'Ola Aina (Nigeria) wins a free kick in the defensive half.
27'Attempt missed. Wilfred Ndidi (Nigeria) left footed shot from outside the box misses to the left. Assisted by Samuel Chukwueze.
26'Attempt missed. Bruno Onyemaechi (Nigeria) left footed shot from a difficult angle on the left misses to the left. Assisted by Samuel Chukwueze with a cross.
25'Attempt missed. Rayan Raveloson (Madagascar) right footed shot from long range on the right is high and wide to the left. Assisted by Mathieu Acapandié.
21'Attempt blocked. Ademola Lookman (Nigeria) right footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
20'Foul by Mathieu Acapandié (Madagascar).
20'Calvin Bassey (Nigeria) wins a free kick in the attacking half.
16'Goal! Nigeria 0, Madagascar 1. Ehsan Kari (Madagascar) header from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Ryan Ponti with a cross following a corner.
15'Corner, Madagascar. Conceded by Alex Iwobi.
14'Offside, Nigeria. George Ilenikhena is caught offside.
12'Rayan Raveloson (Madagascar) wins a free kick in the defensive half.
12'Foul by Semi Ajayi (Nigeria).
10'Offside, Madagascar. Hakim Abdallah is caught offside.
10'Morgan Jean-Pierre (Madagascar) wins a free kick in the defensive half.
10'Foul by George Ilenikhena (Nigeria).
09'Ryan Ponti (Madagascar) wins a free kick in the defensive half.
09'Foul by Bruno Onyemaechi (Nigeria).
07'Attempt missed. Rayan Raveloson (Madagascar) right footed shot from more than 35 yards misses to the right. Assisted by Sandro Trémoulet following a fast break.
06'Sandro Trémoulet (Madagascar) wins a free kick in the defensive half.
06'Foul by George Ilenikhena (Nigeria).
04'Attempt missed. Wilfred Ndidi (Nigeria) header from the centre of the box is close, but misses the top right corner. Assisted by Samuel Chukwueze with a cross following a corner.
04'Corner, Nigeria. Conceded by Sandro Trémoulet.
03'Attempt blocked. Samuel Chukwueze (Nigeria) left footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. Assisted by Ola Aina.
01'Attempt missed. George Ilenikhena (Nigeria) left footed shot from the centre of the box misses to the left. Assisted by Bruno Onyemaechi with a cross.
01'First Half begins.
Match report
Match started
16'
0 : 1
Goal!
E. Kari
36'
G. DupireYellow card
45'
1 : 1
Goal!
G. Ilenikhena
1st half1-1
57'
A. LookmanYellow card
61'
M. UsorS. ChukwuezeSubstitution
61'
M. SimonA. AdamsSubstitution
65'
2 : 1
Goal!
M. Usor
67'
W. CaddyE. Hadary YlanSubstitution
69'
T. ArokodareA. LookmanSubstitution
69'
T. AwoniyiG. IlenikhenaSubstitution
70'
N. FontaineR. PontiSubstitution
70'
R. RandriamanampisoaC. CouturierSubstitution
84'
R. FerberH. AbdallahSubstitution
84'
L. LapoussinM. IlaimaharitraSubstitution
87'
B. Osayi-SamuelO. AinaSubstitution
90'
N. FontaineYellow card
2nd half2-1
Pressure during the match
according to SportWire
NigeriaminutesMadagascar
0'45'90'
Bars above the line show home pressure; bars below show away pressure. Height is relative to the most intense moment of the match.
Match statistics
Full match
1st half
2nd half
Nigeria
Madagascar
Ball possession
55%
45%
Total shots
22
4
Corners
5
2
Offsides
3
1
Goal kicks
3
15
Fouls
14
9
Yellow cards
1
2
Ball possession
63%
37%
Total shots
14
3
Corners
3
1
Offsides
2
1
Goal kicks
2
8
Fouls
7
3
Yellow cards
0
1
Ball possession
46%
54%
Total shots
8
1
Corners
2
1
Offsides
1
0
Goal kicks
1
7
Fouls
7
6
Yellow cards
1
1
Shot map
shots: 26
Nigeria22 shots, xG 0,00
Madagascar4 shots, xG 0,00
Goal On target Off target Blocked Nigeria Madagascar
Both teams attack upwards. Higher dots show shots taken closer to goal. Dot size represents xG and colour shows the outcome. Filled dots are the home team; hollow dots are the away team.
Liontips
Nigeria
Madagascar
