LiontipsCarlston Harris - Jake Matthews: betting tip (KEF 1.85) and bets on the fight
Command Analysis
Current form
Jake Matthews last appeared in the cage last fall, when he lost to Neil Magni. That fight was not easy for the Australian and ended in the third round with a stranglehold on D'Arce. However, defeat should not be misleading. Before meeting Magni, Matthews had a three-game winning streak and looked really convincing. His success in a duel against Chidi Njokuani, whom he forced to surrender with a painful technique, was especially vividly remembered.
Matthews is 31 years old, which is almost the ideal age for a welterweight. There is experience, physical freshness, and an understanding of how to distribute forces during heavy battles. During his career in MMA, the Australian has won 21 victories: four by knockout, eight by decision and nine by submission. He suffered defeats eight more times, but another thing is important — Matthews has been fighting serious opposition for a long time and rarely dropped out of the game psychologically, even after failures.
Current form
For Carlston Harris, the situation looks much more complicated. A fighter from Guyana leaves on short notice, and this is always an additional risk, especially at the age of 38. Harris' recent performances also raise questions. He suffered two defeats in a row by knockout, and in the previous fight he lost to Santiago Ponzinibbio after a difficult and exhausting exchange. Moreover, Harris stayed out of the cage for a long time. A fight against Michael Chiesa was planned, but visa problems ruined these plans. As a result, he didn't actually have a full-fledged camp for Matthews.
At the same time, writing off Harris in advance is a dangerous mistake. He remains a physically powerful and extremely unpleasant opponent. He has 18 wins in his professional career: five by knockout, eight by decision and five by submission. Harris knows how to seize the moment, works well in the clinch and is able to punish any loss of concentration. But there are too many factors stacked against him right now.
Trends
Bet The duel will be complete
The two fighters have 16 wins on points.
Tip and bets
One gets the feeling that this is almost an ideal scenario for Matthews. He is younger, better equipped functionally and is ready to fight after a full training camp. Yes, Harris is bigger and physically very strong, but the Australian has already passed through serious and bulky rivals during his career. The most important thing is that literally everything is working against Harris now: age, short notice, simple, no fights, and a series of heavy defeats.
In MMA, of course, any madness is possible, and one precise blow can turn the picture in a second. But if you look at the situation coolly, Matthews' advantage looks too obvious. At the same time, the coefficient for a clean win of the Australian is no longer of great interest. The option of ending the match ahead of schedule looks much more attractive. Fighters like to work aggressively, and Harris' condition after a long period of downtime raises serious questions.
Our betting tip is a total of less than 2.5 rounds in 1.85
