LiontipsBrighton - Bournemouth: betting tip (cf 3.10) and bets on the English Premier League match
Command Analysis
Current form
Brighton does not lose hope of winning a ticket to European competitions through the Premier League at the end of the season. It will be incredibly difficult to finish in the top 5. And it's not even that the competition is off the charts, but that the seagulls are too unstable. In the last five rounds alone, they managed to take points away from Manchester City on the road (1:1), but at the same time they went their separate ways with West Ham (2:2). The constant desire to play to the maximum in attack often plays a cruel joke on the team in the form of missed goals in the endings.
Even the important factor of the home field has stopped helping the seagulls on a regular basis. In the last four Vital matches, Fabian Hürzeler's team has scored only one victory over Burnley (2-0). At the same time, there were point losses at home with West Ham (1-1) and Sunderland (0-0). To qualify for high places, such matches need to be won. In total, Brighton has scored 19 points on its field since the beginning of the season, and has only one defeat.
Last week, the Seagulls beat Manchester United 2-1 in the 1/32 finals of the FA Cup. Moreover, the victory turned out to be more than deserved, the opponent scored the ball only at the very end.
Disqualifications and injuries
Webster, Viffer, Zimas, and March are all injured. Minte and Gomez are in question.
Interesting betting trends
- In three of the last five matches, Brighton have not won in the first half.
- Brighton have only one defeat in their last 14 home matches in the Premier League.
- The exchange of goals was recorded in 11 of the Seagulls' 14 previous home matches in the Premier League.
Approximate line–up: Verbruggen – Hinshelwood, van Hecke, Dank, De Kuyper - Ayari, Baleba – Gruda, Rutter, Mitoma – Welbeck.
Current form
Bournemouth went 11 rounds without a win in the Premier League. The unsuccessful streak was interrupted in the last round by beating Tottenham 3-2 at home. However, the victory did not convince that the crisis was in the past. As before, the Cherries miss a lot and allow their opponents to create a huge number of dangerous chances at their own goal. The same Spurs scored 16 shots on goal at once, while Bournemouth were lucky in many ways: three shots on target – three goals, and the winning goal was scored already in added time.
In total, the Cherries have conceded 40 goals in 21 matches in the Premier League since the start of the season. Only three teams from the relegation zone conceded more goals. At the same time, 29 of the 40 goals were conceded on the road. Unsurprisingly, Bournemouth currently occupies only 15th place in the table. There is clearly no threat of relegation, as the gap is nine points. But it will be difficult to even claim a place in the top 10 with such a defensive game. At the moment, the cherries are five points behind the top ten.
During the week in the FA Cup in the 1/32 finals, Andoni Iraola's team again played poorly defensively, conceding two goals from Newcastle (2:2). In the penalty shootout, the Magpies performed better and advanced to the 1/16 finals.
Disqualifications and injuries
Doak, Adams, Dennis, Akinmboni, Kluivert, Unal will not play today due to injuries, Christie and Brooks are questionable.
Interesting betting trends
- In three of the last five matches, Bournemouth have drawn in the first half.
- In Bournemouth's eight previous away matches in the Premier League, at least four goals were scored.
- There have been goal exchanges in Bournemouth's last six Premier League matches.
The approximate composition: Petrovich – Jimenez, Hill, Senesi, Truffert – Scott, Cook — Tavernier, Krupi, Adly – Evanilson.
xG Statistics
Detailed XG statisticsTrends
Bet Goals in both halves – yes
Stavka has played in the last six face-to-face matches
1.41The bet is an accurate score of 3:1
Brighton have scored two of their last four personal wins on home turf with a two-goal advantage.
12.501st halfbet: total less than 1.5 goals
In the four previous head-to-head matches, no more than one goal was scored in the opening 45 minutes.
1.61The Total Brighton cornerrateis less than 5.5
In 9 of the last 12 home matches of Brighton in the Premier League, the bet was successful.
1.82The Total Yellow cardrateis more than 3.5
At least four warnings have been shown in eight of Bournemouth's last nine Premier League away matches.
1.54Tip and bets
Quite deservedly, even considering its instability, Brighton is the bookmakers' favorite. The Seagulls are playing on their own field, where they have suffered only one defeat in the Premier League since the start of the season. The opponent will obviously be convenient for them: Bournemouth regularly fails in defense, allows a lot at their own goal, which the hosts, who are always focused on attacking, will use. Plus, the statistics speak in favor of Fabian Hurzeler's wards: in the four previous face-to-face meetings at the Vital, they achieved victories. It is worth betting on the victory of Brighton, which has not yet lost its chances of competing for European cups.
Our betting tip is that Brighton will win by a factor of 1.90
Bet on the total
Bournemouth have conceded 40 goals since the start of the season, 29 of them in away matches. There is no reason to expect a dramatic improvement in the defensive game. Moreover, today we will have to play away from Brighton, which, regardless of the opponent, goes forward with great strength, boldly attacks and has no problems creating and implementing chances.
The second bet is Brighton's individual goal total of more than 1.5 with a coefficient of 1.64
Combined bid
We have two teams in front of us that rely on attack in their game, but are far from flawless in defense. There is a high probability that there will be an exchange of goals scored in the match, which could be seen in the three previous face-to-face meetings. At the same time, due to the home field factor and a good current form, Brighton is able to achieve victory. It is logical to play a combined bet with a high coefficient in such a scenario.
The prediction is that Brighton will win and both will score with a coefficient of 3.10
