Umar Nurmagomedov - Mario Bautista: betting tip and bets for the fight

Current form

Nurmagomedov is approaching UFC 321 after the first defeat in his professional career, which occurred in the 19th fight. In January, he lost to Merab Dvalishvili by unanimous decision in his opponent's first title defense. Many are still arguing whether the fight was as obvious as the judges showed. I think Dvalishvili's victory was well deserved: Umar looked tired, and by the end of the fight it became noticeable that there was almost no energy left.

To be back in the title race, Nurmagomedov defeated Corey Sandhagen and Bekzat Almahan, both times by decision of the judges. Considering how often Dvalishvili fights and Peter Yan's recent chances, one convincing victory will be enough for a repeat challenger fight. Umar is not the most accurate wrestler — his takedown rate is only 39 percent. At first glance, this seems to be a consequence of an unsuccessful fight with Dvalishvili (2 out of 15), but if you look at previous fights, the picture is similar: against Sandhagen — 5 out of 13, against Kelleher — 1 out of 5.

Interesting betting trends

The accuracy of Nurmagomedov's punches is 57 percent.

Current form

Mario Bautista, if he wins, will most likely also get a chance at a title fight. The Brazilian quietly but confidently scored a series of eight wins in a row. In the last fight, he completely dismantled Patchey Mix's UFC debut, winning the stand and practically not allowing his opponent to attack. Before that, there was a more boring split decision victory over Jose Aldo.

Bautista's most serious test of protection against transfers came in a duel with Ricky Simon last year. He allowed his opponent to make only two takedowns out of 13 attempts and won by unanimous decision, beating Simon 112-45. Nurmagomedov is a higher—level wrestler than Simon, but Simon's average takedown stats are 5.01 in 15 minutes, while Umar's are 3.26. If Bautista manages to limit Nurmagomedov to at least one takedown below his average, he will have a real chance of success. 

Interesting betting trends

The accuracy of Bautista's punches is 48 percent.