LiontipsIlia Topuria - Charles Oliveira: betting tip and bets for the fight
Command Analysis
Current form
Ilia Topuria is like a lightning bolt hitting exactly the target. Undefeated (16-0), he broke into the UFC elite, knocking out two featherweight legends in a row. First, Alexander Volkanovsky collapsed from his right hook, then Max Holloway fell from his left, which Max and I have never seen before. The victory over Holloway in October 2024 was particularly striking: he looked lost, as if time or the power of Topuria had broken him.
Now Elijah is going to lightweight for the title, which was vacated by Islam Makhachev for the sake of a 170-pound campaign. Topuria is a former Mix Fight Events champion, his speed and accuracy are frightening, and his fighting and takedown defense make him versatile. But Charles Oliveira is a veteran who has seen everything, and his experience can be a test.
Interesting betting trends
The success rate of Topuria takedowns is 47 percent.
Current form
Charles Oliveira is like an old Brazilian samurai, battered but still deadly. In November 2024, he confidently reworked Michael Chandler, showing that at the age of 35 (35-10-0-1) He's still capable of a lot. His size is impressive: 7.5 cm taller than Topuria (180 cm versus 172.5 cm) and with a handspan of 187.5 cm versus 175 cm. Charles is an ex—lightweight champion, his title race was full of finishes, but also shocks.
He won against Dustin Poirier, Justin Geigi, Beneel Dariush, but lost to Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan. Oliveira is a master of the stalls, his jiu-jitsu is a trap, but he is vulnerable in the stand: protection from significant blows is only 49%, and in recent fights Chandler, Tsarukyan and Makhachev were hit too often.
Interesting betting trends Oliveira's punches are 55 percent accurate.
Trends
The Victory of Toupuria by Submissionbet
The statistics of Topuria's wins by submission is 50 percent.
7.20Tip and bets
Bookmakers see Topuria as a clear favorite, and this is no coincidence. This is a battle where youth and precision collide with experience and size. Ilia is a sniper and has the power to finish with one punch. He closes the distance with lightning speed, presses it against the grid and disassembles it. Oliveira will believe in his stance, but his defense is like a sieve. If Charles doesn't bring the fight to the ground quickly, Topuria can hook him. But Oliveira is not just a drummer. His jiu-jitsu and clinch can create problems, especially given his size advantage. Topuria is good at fighting, but Charles is a master submissive. If the fight drags on, the Brazilian may catch on. However, the fight will follow a scenario where the Georgian dominates the stand, avoiding the stalls, and finishes in the second or third round — Oliveira has not finished in the first since 2015.
Our betting tip is that Topuria will win in round 3-4 in 3.90
