LiontipsMinnesota Timberwolves - Oklahoma Thunder: betting tip and bets on the NBA match
Command Analysis
Current form
On May 23, Minnesota learned a painful lesson from Oklahoma on the road in the second match of the semifinals — 103:118, and the score in the series became 2-0 in favor of the Thunder. The home team forced the visitors to lose the ball 14 times, and their main star, Julius Rand, was shut out of the game: after 28 points in the first match, he gave up only six (2/11 from the game) and four losses.
Anthony Edwards was close to a double-double (32 points, ten rebounds, six assists), Jayden McDaniels added 22 points, but starters Mike Conley (three) and Rudy Gober (five) failed, scoring a measly eight between them. Chris Finch's team (49 wins, 33 losses) is sixth in the West in the regular season.
Disqualifications and injuries
Minnesota goes to the match in full force. All the leaders are healthy and ready to fight.
Interesting facts for betting
Minnesota is averaging 114 points against Oklahoma (over the last ten games).
The Timberwolves have beaten the Thunder in two playoff games in history, but Oklahoma is ahead with five wins.
Minnesota has won the first half in five of the last seven games against the Thunder.
The approximate line-up: Mike Conley, Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle, Rudy Gober.
Current form
Oklahoma is going like a champion express. In the first match, they were down by 4 points by halftime, but in the second half they beat Minnesota by a margin of 30. In the second match, the Thunder were even more convincing: they captured +8 by the big break and crushed the opponent in the third quarter (36:21).
Shay Gilges-Alexander had a phenomenal game— 38 points with just one loss. Jaylen Williams scored a double-double (26 points, ten rebounds, five assists), Chet Holmgren added 22 points. Mark Dagnolt's team (68 wins, 14 losses) is the regular season champion.
Disqualifications and injuries
Thunder arrived in Minneapolis without loss. The full squad is ready to continue dominating.
Interesting facts for betting
Oklahoma is averaging 110 points against Minnesota (over the last ten games).
Thunder's winning streak lasts three matches — they're on a roll!
The approximate line-up: Shay Gilges-Alexander, Lugenz Dort, Jaylen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein.
Trends
Holmgren's Total Reboundsrateis more than 10.5
Holmgren's average is 9.6 rebounds per game
1.88Gilges-Alexander's Total Assistrateis more than 7.5
Gilges-Alexander's average score is 6.9 assists per match
1.87Tip and bets
The bookmakers see Oklahoma as the favorite again, and their logic is ironclad: Gilges-Alexander plays like an MVP, the Thunder's defense after the break is like a steel trap, and their attack simply tears apart. They read the Minnesota game like an open book and strangle their role players like Randle did in the second match. But the Timberwolves will show their mettle at home, in front of their fans. Minneapolis is a fortress where Edwards can explode, and Gober and Conley must step out of the shadows. Randle has to shake himself up after a failure, and McDaniels has already shown that he can rock. Minnesota often wins the first half against Oklahoma, and if they keep up the pace, they'll clinch the match. We are waiting for the Wolves to fight, relying on the defense and energy of the stands.
Our betting tip is for Minnesota to win with a handicap of (+3.5) points, taking into account overtime in 1.76
Bet on the total
The first match of the series was low—scoring — only 202 points, but in the second the Thunder accelerated the pace to 221. Minnesota dropped: 88 points in the first match, 103 in the second. The bookies give 216.5, and I'm leaning towards the bottom. The Timberwolves will rely on defense at home to stop the Oklahoma attack, while their own attack is stalling. I'm waiting for a sticky match, where points will be difficult to get, and the total will remain below 216.5.
Our betting tip is a total of less than 216.5 points, including overtime in 1.75
The bet on the player
Williams is a Thunder star, but his game often sags on the road, despite a bright 26 points in the second match. He averages 20.5 points in the playoffs, but it will be more difficult for him in Minneapolis, where the Wolves' defense will be under pressure. Williams, a participant in the 2025 NBA All-Star Game, can go into the shadows without breaking through his line. We expect his performance to drop.
Our prediction is a total less than Williams of 20.5 points in 1.88
