Gilbert Burns as Michael Morales. Betting Tip for the fight

Gilbert Burns, a fighter of the Absolute Fighting Championship in the welterweight category, will face Michael Morales in the main match of the evening. The fight will take place on May 18 as part of the UFC Fight Night 256 tournament in Las Vegas (USA) at the home venue of the UFC Apex promotion, which can accommodate about one thousand spectators. The approximate start of the fight is 04:00 Moscow time. Will the Brazilian be able to succeed in a duel with a fighter from Ecuador and which bets to choose? - read in our betting tip

Command Analysis

Gilbert Burns

Current form
Gilbert Burns, aka Durinho, is a Brazilian tank, decorated with medals and with a third dan black belt in jiu-jitsu. IBJJF World Champion, CBJJ King of Brazil, UAEJJF World Pro winner, winner of the European and ADCC Grappling Championships — his trophies can be displayed in the museum! He broke into MMA in 2012, sweeping away rivals in Brazilian promotions, and made his UFC debut in October 2014. But in the octagon, his path is like a carousel: ups and downs.
The last three fights have been like a black streak: in September 2024, Sean Brady beat him by decision, before that Jack Della Maddalena knocked him out in the third round, and Belal Muhammad took the victory by unanimous decision. The 38-year-old Brazilian has 22 wins (six by knockout, seven by decision, nine by submission) and eight defeats. He holds the eighth place in the welterweight ranking.
Interesting betting trends
Burns' takedown success rate is 38 percent.Burns' strike accuracy stats are 49 percent.Burns finished his opponents in the first round in 11 fights.

Michael Morales

Current form
Michael Morales is like a young Ecuadorian predator who doesn't know what losing is yet. Before MMA, he was trained in judo and freestyle wrestling, and in 2020 he became the Extreme MMA champion in Ecuador. In 2021, he broke into the UFC and has been going like a tank ever since: 15 wins (11 by knockout, three by decision, one by submission) and no defeats.
In August 2024, he defeated Neil Magni by technical knockout in the first round, and before that, he confidently dismantled Max Griffin and Jake Matthews by decisions. The 25-year-old fighter is ranked 12th in the welterweight division.
Interesting betting trends
The accuracy of Morales' punches is 48 percent.Morales' takedown defense stats are 42 percent.Morales has finished opponents in the first round in eight fights in his career.
Trends
Bet The duel won't be complete
The two fighters have 27 early victories.
1.39Tip and bets
The bookmakers see Morales as the favorite, and I should agree with them. Morales is not a whipping boy. He will keep his distance, work with his feet and aim for Burns' jaw, who has shown in recent fights that he can be caught in a stance. Burns, of course, will try to move the fight to the stalls, where he is like a shark in the water, but this is not a guarantee of success. Durinho's recent defeats hint that his armor is no longer the same, especially against sharp strikers. If Michael doesn't let himself be dragged down, his fists can give the Brazilian a rainy day. We are waiting for a bright fight where Morales' youth and knockout power will take over.
Our betting tip is an early victory for Morales in 1.69