Liontips
Arina Sobolenko - Marta Kostyuk: betting tip for the WTA Rome match
Two weeks ago in Madrid, Arina Sobolenko broke Marta Kostyuk's resistance with great difficulty in two tie-breaks. On May 12, the tennis players will face off again in Rome, fighting to reach the quarterfinals. Should we expect a rematch today, or will Arina defeat Marta for the fourth time in her career? - the answer is in our betting tip. What are the best bets for the match?
Command Analysis
Aryna Sabalenka
BelarusCurrent form
After winning the title in Madrid, Sobolenko continued her successful performances in Rome. Arina started with a confident victory over Potapova (6-2, 6-2), after which she had a difficult match against Kenin (3-6, 6-3, 6-3). It took Sobolenko a while to find arguments against the American's powerful game, but as the match progressed, she began to play more aggressively, forcing her opponent to make mistakes.
Professional qualities
Arina plays aggressive attacking tennis, but it is worth noting that now she no longer strives at all costs to finish each draw with a straight shot. Sobolenko has noticeably improved the reliability of her game on the back line, and she doesn't make mistakes as often on serve as she could have seen before. At the same time, her powerful forehand is still a threat to any opponent.
Current indicators in the tour
Since the beginning of the year, Sobolenko has won 34 of 39 matches in the round and confidently leads the world ranking. The Belarusian tennis player has 10 wins and only one defeat on clay.
Interesting facts for betting
- In three personal meetings, Sobolenko won back Kostyuk, did not give her a single set.
- Sobolenko's winning streak currently stands at eight matches.
Marta Kostyuk
UkraineCurrent form
Kostyuk spends the dirt part of the season at a high level. After the quarterfinals of Madrid, we see Marta in the 1/8 finals of Rome. The Ukrainian tennis player has three wins with an accurate score of 2-0 in sets over Eala, Kasatkina and Fernandez. There is another game ahead against Sobolenko, whom Marta has lost three times in her career, but in Madrid she managed to put up serious resistance and lost only in two tie-breaks.
Professional qualities
Marta relies more on reliable actions on the back line and on sharp counterattacks. At any moment, she can escalate the game, increase the tempo, which comes as a surprise to many competitors.
Current indicators in the tour
Kostyuk is currently the 27th racket of the world, and her best result in her career is the 16th position. In 2025, Marta played 27 matches in the tour, in which she won 17 and suffered 10 defeats. The tennis player won six out of seven matches on clay.
Interesting facts for betting
- In five matches in a row, Kostyuk did not exchange the sets she won with her rivals.
- In three of Kostyuk's four previous matches, more than nine games were played in the first set.
Trends
The Totalbetis less than 2.5 sets
In three personal meetings, Sobolenko won with an accurate score of 2-0 in sets.
1.40Bet Effectiveness of sets: 1>2
According to this scenario, events unfolded on the court in three of the last five matches of Kostyuk
2.24Tip and bets
In Madrid, Kostyuk put up serious resistance to Sobolenko. The first racket of the world won then only on two tie-breaks. Against the background of that match, the bookmakers noticeably changed the line, now Arina is not such a clear favorite. However, we do not think that Marta, given her instability, is ready to hold another match at the same level. Sobolenko is able to break through Kostyuk's defense due to her serve and powerful forehand. We believe that the favorite will not experience any problems this time.
Our betting tip is for Sobolenko to win with a handicap of (-4) games with a coefficient of 1.81
Bet on the total
Kostyuk is working out uncertainly on his serve and can hardly expect to take more than five or six games today. In two of the three face-to-face meetings, the total did not exceed the mark of 21 games.
The second bet is a total of less than 21 games for 1.89
Bet on the first set
In four consecutive matches with Sobolenko, no more than nine games were played in the first set. In our opinion, Arina will try to show her advantage at the start today.
The betting tip is a total of less than 9.5 games in the first set with a coefficient of 1.62
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