LiontipsJack Draper - Matteo Arnaldi: prediction and bets on the ATP Madrid match
Command Analysis
Current form
Draper was stronger than Tommy Paul in the fourth round of the Madrid Masters, 6-2, 6-2. Jack made four aces, made four break points, and did not lose a single game on his serve. Earlier, the Briton passed Matteo Berrettini and Tallon Grixpura in the tournament bracket.
Professional qualities
Draper is a southpaw, which allows him to dominate the opposition with tennis players who have a weak backhand. At the same time, Jack is also fast - he has excellent movement around the court and is able to get balls of almost any complexity. The Briton tries to play in an aggressive manner, while he does not avoid prolonged draws on the back line.
Current indicators in the tour
Draper won the Indian Wells Masters this season. It was the third ATP title of his career for the 23-year-old Briton. Jack is currently in sixth place in the world ranking.
Interesting facts for betting
Draper has won 8 of the last 10 fights.
Current form
Arnaldi defeated Francis Tiafoe 6-3, 7-5 in the fourth round of the Madrid tournament. In the confrontation with the American, Matteo made six aces, made three break points and lost one game on his serve. He had previously beaten Damir Djumhur, Novak Djokovic and Borna Choric in the tournament bracket.
Professional qualities
On the courts of Madrid, Arnaldi demonstrates a pretty good level of play, which, we recall, allowed him to beat Djokovic in the second round. Matteo feels confident when playing on both sides. Sometimes the Italian's serve fails in his arsenal, but on clay courts this element of the game is not as important as on a fast surface.
Current indicators in the tour
Arnaldi is currently ranked 44th in the world rankings. The 24-year-old Italian has won six trophies in his career, the last of which he completed in 2023, winning the dirt challenger in Heilbronn.
Interesting facts for betting
The last three matches with Arnaldi ended in two sets.
Trends
The 1st setbetis Draper's victory
Draper won the 1st set in 10 of the last 12 matches.
1.44The Totalbetis less than 2.5 sets
The last three matches involving Arnaldi were played in two sets.
1.55Tip and bets
Draper is a clear favorite in this pair. Jack is playing better and better with every match. In the recent fourth round match against Paul, he demonstrated good break point execution and did not allow Tommy to do anything on his serve. We expect a confident victory for Draper in this confrontation.
Our prediction is that Draper will win with a handicap of (-4) games by a factor of 2.13
Bet on the total
Draper is the favorite in this pair. Here and now, he is clearly playing better than Arnaldi, even despite the Italian's recent victory over Djokovic. We believe that Jack will be able to beat Matteo in two quick sets.
The second betting tip is a total of less than 22 games for a coefficient of 1.93
Bet on the first set
In four of Arnaldi's last five matches, fewer than 9.5 games were played in the first set. Most likely, the upcoming duel against Draper will also start with the grassroots first game.
The betting tip is a total of less than 9.5 games in the first set for a coefficient of 2.11
