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Benfica vs Barcelona: Prediction and Betting Tips with Odds 4.20
In the seventh round of the Champions League, Benfica will play against one of the tournament leaders, Barcelona. The Catalans, after losing at the start to Monaco, have not allowed themselves a single misfire and are in second place. The Eagles are not distinguished by stability, but have a good chance of reaching the playoffs. According to what scenario will events on the field develop today and what reliable bets should you choose? - the answer is in our betting tip. Also, the star experts of the site, Alexander Mostovoy and Dmitry Gradilenko, share their opinions on the game
Command Analysis
Benfica
PortugalCurrent form
Benfica is approaching the start of the seventh round in 15th place in the standings. The eagles have 10 points, there is a three-point lead to retain their position in the playoffs. Overall, the result is not bad, it was unlikely that they could count on the top 8 in the new format. Bruno Lage team has not demonstrated stable results throughout the tournament. We can recall the completely unnecessary home defeat 1:3 to Feyenoord, while they managed to crush Atletico on their own field (4:0). In the last round before the break, Benfica drew with Bologna (0:0).
In Primeira, the situation is also very similar to the Champions League. The Eagles lost two matches in a row against formidable opponents by the standards of the championship, Braga (1:2) and Sporting (0:1). However, in the last round, they managed to fully recoup against modest Famalicao (4:0). The team has 41 points and is in intermediate second place after 18 rounds. Sporting is ahead by three points, the entire fight for the championship title is still ahead, especially since Porto is behind at a distance of one point.
It should be noted that in the national championship Benfica plays almost flawlessly on its home field - only one defeat since the beginning of the season from Braga (1:2). In the Champions League, the home arena does not always help the eagles - four points scored in three matches.
Disqualifications and injuries
Gouveia and Sanches will not play today due to injuries.
Interesting trends for betting
- In the last three matches involving Benfica, there has been an exchange of goals scored
- At least three goals have been scored in seven of the Eagles' previous nine Champions League matches
- Benfica have failed to win in 10 of their last 14 Champions League matches (seven defeats and three draws)
Estimated line-up: Trubin – Ba, Otamendi, Silva, Fernandes – Kökçu, Florentino, Aursnes – Di Maria, Pavlidis, Akturkoglu.
Barcelona
SpainCurrent form
Barcelona suffered an unexpected 1-2 away defeat to Monaco in the opening round of the Champions League. It is worth remembering, of course, that they had to play with ten men for most of that match. The Catalans did not allow themselves a single slip-up in the following rounds, winning five rounds in a row and occupying second place with 15 points. It should be noted that Hansi Flick team scored 21 goals in the main European club football tournament - this is the best result among all participants. For comparison: Liverpool has only 13 goals. In the last round before the break, they managed to win Borussia in Dortmund in a difficult match with a score of 3-2.
Barcelona have had a decent decline in La Liga. The blue and garnets have gone four rounds without a win, and in these matches there was only one top opponent - a 1:2 defeat to Atletico Madrid. In the last round, they failed to cope with Getafe (1:1), despite 78% possession and a large number of dangerous moments. The result of such an unsuccessful series was that the Catalans lost their lead in the table and after 20 rounds they occupy third place, with the gap from the leading Real Madrid reaching seven points, and from Atletico in second place - five points.
Despite the failures in La Liga, Barcelona won the Spanish Super Cup. In Jeddah, in the semi-final, there was a victory over Athletic Bilbao (2:0), and in the final in El Clasico, the Catalans defeated Real Madrid for the second time this season (5:2).
Disqualifications and injuries
Ter Stegen, Bernal, Martinez and Olmo will not play in Lisbon today due to injuries.
Interesting trends for betting
- Goal exchanges have occurred in Barcelona previous three matches
- Barcelona have scored at least three goals in their last nine Champions League matches
- Barcelona have won in the second half in their last five Champions League matches
Tentative line-up: Szczesny – Kunde, Kubarsi, Araujo, Balde – Pedri, Casado – Yamal, Gavi, Rafinha – Lewandowski.
Trends
Benfica to not lose on shots on target
In the last five matches of the hosts, this bet has paid off
2.00Bet 1st half: total over 1.5 goals
The bet has played in four of Barcelona last five matches
2.14Bet Exact score 1:2
Benfica last two defeats were by one goal
8.70Bet Goals in both halves – yes
In three of the hosts' last five matches, goals were scored in each half
1.51Total yellow cards bet for Benfica under 2.5
In 12 of their previous 14 home matches in the Champions League, Benfica players have not received more than two yellow cards
1.85Tip and bets
Benfica have lost to Braga and Sporting in the Primeira Liga in the last month, the Eagles have lacked stability throughout the season, and not only have they had some bright matches, but also some outright failures. Barcelona have noticeably slowed down in La Liga, but they play almost flawlessly in other tournaments, and their attack is, as always, at its best, as evidenced by the 21 goals scored in the Champions League. Overall, the Catalans have a noticeable advantage in class, and it is unlikely that the unstable Eagles will be able to score even one point today.
Our prediction is Barcelona victory with odds of 2.00
Bet on total
Barcelona plays with an emphasis on attack, the hosts will obviously have to accept the rules of the opponent. In all matches involving the Catalans in the current Champions League, at least three goals were scored. It is highly likely that this time the game will be productive.
The second bet is total over three goals with odds of 1.69
Bet on the exact difference in the score
Benfica rarely makes blatant failures. In the last two lost matches, the eagles lost by a difference of one goal, which is what we expect today. Moreover, Barcelona has a difficult schedule of performances, it is far from a fact that they will be able to win with a margin.
Prediction: Barcelona win by one goal with odds of 4.20
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