LiontipsMackenzie Dern - Amanda Ribas. Betting Tip and betting for the fight
Command Analysis
Current form
Mackenzie Dern has been competing in the strawweight division of the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) since 2018. She is currently ranked sixth in her division. The Arizona native made her professional MMA debut in 2016 and has since fought in 22 fights, earning 14 wins (seven by decision, seven by submission). Her UFC appearances have earned her six post-bonuses: three for Performance of the Night and three for Fight of the Night. The athlete set UFC records for women in the strawweight division for submissions (4) and submission attempts (15). In 2020, Dern became the first woman in the UFC to finish a fight via submission using a leg lock. In her last fight, the 31-year-old Brazilian defeated Mexican Lupita Godinez by unanimous decision in August 2024. Before her MMA career, Mackenzie had considerable success in Jiu-Jitsu. She is a BJJ World Champion (black belt) and also holds the ADCC World Grappling title. Dern is the only woman to have won gold medals in all major IBJJF tournaments, including the World, European, Pan American, and Brazilian Championships. One of her most notable victories was overcoming a significant weight advantage to defeat Gabi Garcia.
Latest news
Dern expects the rematch with Ribas to be different. "I think being back in Brazil, being with my family, having family dinners, all of that is really important," Dern said in an interview Tuesday. "That what makes it so relaxing... It summer in Brazil, not winter, and that means a lot, too.
"I think she met me not at my worst, but at a level that I didn't know I could be — how professional I could be in MMA," Dern said. "At that point, I had just given birth to Moa four months earlier, I was breastfeeding, and honestly, I didn't have that much muscle mass.
Interesting trends for betting
Dern takedown success rate is 14 percent.
Current form
Amanda Ribas, ranked eighth in the UFC strawweight rankings, began her professional career in 2014. A titleholder in the Jungle Fight and Max Fight organizations, she made her UFC debut in 2019, winning by submission. Since then, she has had a number of successful fights, including impressive victories over Emily Whitmire, Paige VanZant, and Luana Pinheiro. The 31-year-old Latin American has 12 wins (four by knockout, five by decision, three by submission) and five losses.
Ribas is also known for her high level of wrestling, as evidenced by her numerous submission victories. She has two UFC bonuses: for Fight of the Night and Performance of the Night. Amanda grew up in the family of a judo and jiu-jitsu coach, Marcelo Ribas. From an early age, she trained under her father and was a member of the Brazilian national youth judo team. However, due to knee injuries, she temporarily stopped training, but later returned, inspired by her friends preparing for an MMA tournament.
Latest news
Ribas recalls his path in sports with humor. I was born on the mats. It is my calling. True, there was a moment when I left wrestling for dancing. My father almost died of shock!
Interesting trends for betting
Ribas has a 51 percent takedown success rate.
Trends
Bet Ribas wins by knockout
Ribas knockout win rate is 31 percent.
8.40Tip and bets
Bookmakers analysts consider Ribas the clear favorite of the upcoming fight. In their opinion, Dern will have very little chance of success. And that is true. Amanda is a talented, but not perfect fighter. Her aggressiveness can lead to mistakes, and her resistance to blows leaves much to be desired. Dern’s most likely chance of winning is an early end to the fight. She is bigger and physically stronger than Ribas, but problems with executing the plan for the fight often let her down.
If Dern falters or loses focus in the cage, she risks getting hit with a series of powerful punches. This is not to say she has low IQ, but her decision-making in a fight is sometimes questionable. Her strategy against Ribas should be simple: patiently look for openings to clinch and wrestle after her opponent’s punches. At the same time, Dern can throw powerful punches. Although her striking is slower, it is effective enough to create a threat.
Our prediction is an early victory for Ribas at 3.75
