LiontipsAthletic - Villarreal. Forecast (odds 3.10) and bets on the match of the Spanish championship
Command Analysis
Current form
Athletic Bilbao continue to fight for a place at the top of the La Liga table, although Ernesto Valverde side are struggling due to a tight schedule. After several draws, including against Mallorca (0-0) and Valladolid (1-1), the Basque club have yet to regain their former consistency.
The combination of the Conference League and La Liga games requires the team to be extremely focused. However, Valverde is trying to minimise fatigue among key players through rotation. Home form remains Athletic strong point - they have not suffered a home defeat for over a year, which gives them confidence ahead of the encounter with Villarreal.
Injuries and disqualifications
The club will be without Unai Simon (wrist injury), Ojan Sunset (thigh injury) and Alex Berenguer (injury).
Interesting trends for betting
- Nico Williams has been in outstanding form, with his effectiveness on the international stage and for club keeping his attacking play at a high level.
- Athletic have lost just one of their last 23 home games, showing defensive stability.
- The Basque team have the best home record in La Liga, having not suffered a defeat at home for more than 12 months.
Probable lineup: Padilla - Rincon, Egueluz, Lecue, Boiro - Herrera, Canales, Olabar, Gomez - Javier, Williams
Current form
Villarreal have been solid in La Liga despite not being involved in European competition. The international break has clearly benefited Marcelino’s men, who head into the weekend sitting top of the table. They have lost just one of their last eight matches in all competitions. Their last encounter against Osasuna proved their mettle, coming back from 2-0 down to earn a draw thanks to a penalty in injury time.
With their ability to score in the dying minutes, the Yellow Submarine is a tough opponent for any club. They now face a tough match against Athletic Bilbao, who remain strong at home. Villarreal, however, can rely on their positive statistics and away form in recent games.
Disqualifications and injuries
The team will be without Pedraza (injured), Juan Foyth (knee injury), Gerard Moreno and Denis Suarez (both with muscle injuries).
Interesting trends for betting
- There has never been a draw between these teams in La Liga, suggesting that both sides are keen to win.
- Five of Villarreal wins this season have come after goals scored in the 84th minute or later, highlighting their tenacity.
- If fit, Gerard Moreno could be a key figure in attack, having scored three times in his last five La Liga meetings with Athletic.
Estimated lineup: Alcoado - Kiko Femenia, Albiol, Bayi, Cardona - Terrats, Comesana, Parejo - Danjuma, Pino
Trends
Bet Exact score 1:1
Four of the last six head-to-head matches have seen this score
6.50Bet Goals in both halves – no
In 3 of Athletic last 5 matches, goals were scored in the same half
1.82Bet Corners: Total Under 9.5
In 3 of the last 5 matches of the hosts such a bet took place
1.88Bet Number 1 in the score
In three of the last six matches this bet has played out
1.65Tip and bets
Both Athletic and Villarreal are coming into this match with high motivation. Athletic are looking to strengthen their position in La Liga, especially after a few missed opportunities in recent matches. Bilbao are known for their solid play at home, but their defence sometimes struggles against strong attacking opponents. Villarreal, on the other hand, are showing character even in difficult situations.
Marcelino men have repeatedly shown the ability to come back from critical moments, as was the case in the recent game against Osasuna. Given their ability to find scoring opportunities, especially at the end of matches, the Yellow Submarine remains dangerous even on the road. Statistics confirm the likelihood of an exchange of goals in this clash: in two of the last three head-to-head meetings between Athletic and Villarreal, both teams scored. Given the attacking potential of both sides and their tournament ambitions, the probability of goals from both sides looks very high.
Our prediction is both will score and we are betting on it at 1.84
Bet on the outcome
Athletic traditionally performs well at their home stadium, San Mames, where the team always feels the support of their loyal fans. Bilbao demonstrates outstanding results on their home field, but Villarreal also has positive experience of meetings with the Basques, which makes their rivalry especially interesting. Both teams currently have a similar level of play and motivation: Athletic is trying to rehabilitate itself after recent draws, and Villarreal continues to show the ability to come back from the most difficult situations. Considering the equal chances and the overall level of the opponents, we can expect a tense and hard-fought match. In such a situation, a draw seems most likely, especially considering that Athletic and Villarreal have shared points more than once in previous seasons.
Forecast - draw with odds of 3.70
Bet on a goal in the first half
From the first minutes of the match, both teams will try to seize the initiative. Villarreal often scores quick goals, while Athletic likes to start matches aggressively, using the support of their stands. In recent matches, both teams actively used the flanks to create attacks, which increases the likelihood of an early goal. In addition, a goal in the first half was noted in three of the four previous head-to-head meetings. We expect that this time the opponents will try to hit the goal before the break, which will add dynamics to the game.
Prediction - goal in the first half for 1.87
