LiontipsToronto vs. Ottawa. NHL match prediction and bets
Command Analysis
Current form
Toronto is in fifth place in the Eastern Conference and has managed to score 20 points. The team has been showing inconsistent results for most of the season, but recently its game has started to come together. After an away defeat to Minnesota (1:2 OT) and a return to the home court, it pulled itself together and produced a series of three victories. First, the Leafs dealt with Boston (4:0), then beat Detroit (3:1) and again proved their superiority over Montreal with a score of 4:1. By the way, in none of the cases did they allow the opponent to score even twice, although before that they often showed mediocre defense.
It is also worth noting that the team continues to play without one of the main leaders of the attack, Auston Matthews, who, oddly enough, missed the last three games in which the club celebrated success. Max Pacioretty was also injured in the last match, so Toronto performance will definitely drop in the near future.
Of course, Craig Berube has had to restructure his team game, so he has become more focused on defense and does not take as many risks as he used to. It is also worth mentioning that the Leafs continue to improve their power play and already have a 20.8% power play conversion rate, although for a long period of time they were among the worst in the league in this metric and very rarely used the numerical advantage on the ice.
Disqualifications and injuries
Jarnkrok, Mermis, Matthews, Klingberg, Pacioretty and Hakanpaa will not play in the match.
Interesting trends for betting
- Toronto wins 55% of faceoffs
The Leafs are strong at the point and take most of the faceoffs
- Toronto averages 9.56 penalty minutes
The Leafs are not known for their discipline and are penalized at least four or five times per game.
Current form
Ottawa is definitely looking much better this season than last year. The team is temporarily outside the playoff zone and currently occupies 11th place in the East, but at any moment it can improve and again find itself in the top eight. However, it has not been stable lately. The Canadians beat Seattle (3:0), lost to Buffalo (1:5) and the Islanders (2:4), and in the final match they again achieved victory against Boston with a score of 3:2 in overtime. We emphasize that the game is best for them when there are no more than two pucks in their net, and in other cases they often lose points.
Previously, the Senators showed rather weak results on the road and managed to win only two victories in seven games and usually allowed the opponent to score at least three or four times. And if Ottawa is now in full order with the game in the majority, and it ranks fourth in this indicator (31.1%), then in the game in the minority it is in 20th place in the league and has a total of 76.9% of the neutralization of the opponent majority.
Let us emphasize that Travis Green team is used to playing a strong opening period and achieving a comfortable advantage in the first 20 minutes of the match, in order to spend the remaining two periods with the initiative. That is why the club has the best ratio of goals scored and conceded in the first twenty minutes - 17:9.
Disqualifications and injuries
There are no injured or disqualified players on the team.
Interesting trends for betting
- Statistically, Ottawa is taking 32 shots on goal
The Canadians are showing an active game in attack and are trying to make shots from any position
- The Senators get eight minutes of penalty time per game.
The team is more disciplined than its counterpart and is rarely sent off more than four times
Trends
Bet 1st period: total over 1.5 goals
In three out of four matches between the clubs, the first period was productive
1.85Bet 3rd period: guests will score
In three of the five games, Ottawa scored in the third period.
1.47Tip and bets
In our opinion, Ottawa can claim victory in the upcoming match. The Senators looked great in previous face-to-face meetings with Toronto and achieved success even when the hosts were in good shape and had an optimal roster. Now the Leafs are experiencing serious problems with the roster - they recently lost Auston Matthews, and in the last match they lost Max Pacioretty. Without these forwards, they will no longer be able to show the kind of attacking play that their fans are accustomed to, and their efficiency will drop significantly. We think that the visitors should take advantage of this.
Prediction - Ottawa win with handicap (0) for 2.15
Bet on individual total
In most of the previous meetings with Toronto, Ottawa has scored at least three goals. In general, the Senators often play on the counterattack on the road and usually open up the opponent defense at least three times. The Leafs, of course, have managed with a minimum number of goals conceded in the last three games, but they will not always be able to play such a game in defense. It is quite possible that this time the Senators will punish their opponent with three goals.
We bet on Ottawa individual total over 2.5 goals with odds of 1.75
Total Bet
Toronto is left without its attacking leaders, so the game will definitely not be as bright as it could have been. Previous matches involving Ottawa also often did not feature high scoring and ended with a total under. In derbies, teams are usually wary of each other and do not risk playing on opposite courses, so in this confrontation we also do not expect more than five goals.
We take the total under 5.5 pucks with a coefficient of 2.10
