LiontipsAtletico - Las Palmas. Forecast (odds 6.00) and bets on the match of the Spanish championship
Command Analysis
Current form
Atletico were given a welcome respite from league football in midweek when they faced sixth-tier side Vic in the Copa del Rey. Despite having lost just once in La Liga this season, a 1-0 defeat to Real Betis in their last such game, the capital club are already a full ten points behind Barcelona heading into the matchday – a real setback for a team that had seemingly made such a strong summer of signings.
Home comfort should help Simeone side at the moment given they have been beaten just twice in their last 35 matches at the Estadio Metropolitano in La Liga, while no team has conceded fewer goals as hosts (two) in the division this season.
Disqualifications and injuries
Le Normand (head injury), Llorente (knee injury), Barrios (muscle injury), Lemar (injury) and Azpilicueta (calf injury) will not be able to take to the pitch.
Interesting trends for betting
- Atletico have not lost two consecutive La Liga matches since March.
- Atletico Madrid striker Alexander Sørloth has scored five goals in his last five games for club and country, with his 42 La Liga goals split equally between the first and second halves
- Madrid have conceded just two goals at home this season, a Primera record so far
Estimated line-up : Moldovan - Zubeldia, Normand, Witsel, Lino - Koke, de Paul, Gomez, Riquelmy - Griezmann, Sorloth.
Current form
Atletico’s strength at home is nothing new for upcoming opponents Las Palmas, who have failed to win away from home in the top flight since 1969/70, with a miserable historical win percentage of just 6.1 in such games. However, the Canary Islanders achieved something of a purple patch since the appointment of Diego Martinez, shocking Girona 1-0 in their last La Liga meeting, just after they ended a run of 12 consecutive away league games without a win by beating Valencia 3-2. Furthermore, conceding at least two goals in each of their away games this season means greater danger, with only Celta Vigo (20) and Valladolid (23) having conceded more La Liga goals overall in 2024/25.
Disqualifications and injuries
Marvin (injury), Liodicea (knee injury) and Januzaj (muscle injury) will not be able to take to the football field.
Interesting trends for betting
- Alberto Moleiro scored the winner for Las Palmas against Valencia on Monday, remaining his side lucky talisman as they have lost just once in 11 games when he has scored
- Las Palmas have scored in six of their last seven home matches.
Probable line-up : Sillersen - Munoz, Marmol, Alex Suarez, Viti - Gomez, Rodriguez, Javier - Moleiro, McBurnie, Mata.
Trends
Bet Exact score 1:1
Four of the last six head-to-head matches have seen this score
6.50Bet Goals in both halves – no
In 3 of Atletico last 5 matches, goals were scored in the same half
1.82Bet Corners: Total Under 9.5
In 3 of the last 5 matches of the hosts such a bet took place
1.88Bet Number 1 in the score
In three of the last six matches this bet has played out
1.65Tip and bets
The visitors have excellent results this season and almost never concede at their home stadium. Las Palmas never ceases to amaze and today can please the fans – the team looks much stronger against strong teams that do not need additional motivation. We believe that today the islanders will be able to reach the opponent’s goal, because in the last game the “mattress makers” did not look their best. In addition, in two of the last four face-to-face matches both clubs scored, which we do not rule out today.
Our prediction is that both will score and we are betting on it with odds of 2.15
Bet on the outcome
Today we will not give the victory to the hosts - Atletico lost in the last duel and today the players may burn out even before the starting whistle. In addition, Las Palmas looks very decent, which will ultimately help the team and give a chance to cling to tournament points. We believe that the guests will not be able to gain the upper hand, but they are quite capable of taking tournament points from the "Indians", which will ultimately lead to a peaceful outcome, which is what we will bet on.
The forecast is a draw and we bet on it with odds of 6.40
Yellow Card Betting
This fight will most likely not be an exception and may lead to a lot of violations, some of which may be severely condemned by the referee. Moreover, in two of the last four fights, the referee did not show less than four yellow cards.
Forecast - total yellow cards over four. This option can be found for 1.71
