LiontipsUsman Nurmagomedov vs. Alexander Shabliy. Prediction and bets on the fight
Command Analysis
Current form
In November 2022, Usman Nurmagomedov defeated Brazilian Patricky Freire (unanimous decision) and won the championship belt. Four months later, he successfully defended his title against American Benson Henderson (submission, first round). In October 2023, the Russian defeated another American, Brent Primus (unanimous decision), but the result was annulled after Usman tested positive for a banned substance contained in a prescription drug.
Due to the unintentional nature of the violation, Nurmagomedov was not stripped of his title. The 26-year-old native of Kizilyurt, Dagestan, has 17 wins (eight by knockout, three by decision, six by submission) and zero losses.
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Nurmagomedov believes that he will have no trouble beating Shabliy and defending his title. «I think I will beat him for all five rounds. You will see. I missed the cage so much. I love to compete and I am glad to be back,» Usman said confidently.
Interesting trends for betting
Nurmagomedov's knockout win rate is 47 percent.
Current form
Alexander Shabliy won in March 2023 in the quarterfinals of the Grand Prix against Azerbaijani Tofik Musayev (technical knockout, third round). And in the semifinals he was stronger than Freire (unanimous). The native of Rostov-on-Don also performed in such Russian organizations as ACB, WFCA, Fight Nights Global, ProFC.
Shabliy, 31, has 24 wins (12 by knockout, five by decision, seven by submission) and three losses. Peresvet is the Rostov Region champion in combat sambo and a prize winner of the Russian Thai boxing championship.
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Shabliy made it clear that he is not afraid of Nurmagomedov and is ready to take the belt from him.
«I don't want to overestimate Usman. Nothing surprising will happen to me. I fought with such tigers as Adriano Martins, who defeated Islam Makhachev and Rustam Khabilov. Martins was on the move then. So there is another fight ahead for me. There is no underestimation. But there is no exaggeration in Usman's strength either,» Alexander said.
Interesting trends for betting
Shabliy's points record for losses is 67 percent.
Trends
Bet : Nurmagomedov wins by knockout
Nurmagomedov has eight knockout wins
1.98Tip and bets
Nurmagomedov approaches the upcoming fight as a clear favorite. His cousin Khabib, the former UFC lightweight champion, is also sure of this. Bookmaker analysts believe that Shabliy will have very little chance of success. It is not even worth arguing with them. The only question is how the victory will be achieved. Everything points to the fact that the fight will not go the full distance. Usman has won the first rounds of his last four out of five fights.
Our prediction is an early victory for Nurmagomedov in 2.40
