LiontipsPegula vs Sabalenka. US Open match prediction
Command Analysis
Current form
Pegula secured her first career US Open final by beating Karolina Muchova (1-6, 6-4, 6-2). Jessica served one ace, converted five break points and lost four games on her serve against the Czech. This was the American's 24th open hard court win this season, with six losses. Earlier in the New York major, Pegula beat Iga Swiatek, Diana Schneider, Jessica Buzas Maneiro, Sofia Kenin and Shelby Rogers.
Professional qualities
Pegula has been in outstanding form lately, especially on hard courts where she feels most comfortable. Her fast, flat, low-bounce tennis has proven to be very effective against many opponents, including strong players like Schneider, Muchova and even Swiatek. The American is currently in optimal physical condition and is able to withstand long matches and maintain a high intensity throughout the match.
Current indicators in the tour
Pegula is in the top 10 of the world rankings and is currently ranked 6th. This season, the American has two titles to her credit - she won on grass in Berlin and won the hard court competition in Toronto.
Interesting facts for betting
Over the past two years, Pegula has lost four of four finals where she was a clear underdog.
Current form
Sabalenka defeated Emma Navarro (6-3, 7-6) in the semifinals of the US Open. Arina served eight aces, converted three break points and lost two games on her serve in the match against the American. For the representative of Belarus, this was the 29th victory on open hard courts this season with six losses. Earlier, Sabalenka beat Qinwen Zhang, Elise Mertens, Ekaterina Alexandrova, Lucia Bronzetti and Priscilla Hong in the New York major.
Professional qualities
Sabalenka has been showing phenomenal form on hard courts lately. Her winning streak of 11 matches in a row speaks for itself. The Belarusian has a killer serve and a powerful forehand in her arsenal - these two components of the game make Arina invincible on hard.
Current indicators in the tour
Sabalenka is currently ranked second in the world. This season, Aryna has won two trophies - she won the Australian Open and the Masters in Cincinnati, which took place before the US Open.
Interesting facts for betting
Sabalenka's winning streak on open hard courts now stands at 11 matches.
Tip and bets
Is Pegula capable of beating Sabalenka? Yes, absolutely. She has done it before, twice. In 2020, she beat the Belarusian at the Cincinnati Masters, and last season she defeated Arina at the Year-End Tournament. Jessica is on a roll now - she has suffered only one defeat in her last 16 matches on open hard courts. In addition, the American should gain additional confidence from her recent victories over Muchova and Swiatek. We suggest taking a chance and betting on Pegula to win the upcoming final.
Our prediction is Pegula's victory with odds of 3.95
Bet on total
Sabalenka is the favorite in this match, but we predict a difficult match for her. Pegula has gained some momentum and is capable of taking at least one set from the Belarusian in this match.
The second betting tip is total over 21 games for odds of 1.91
Bet on the first set
In Sabalenka's last five matches, the first set was played with fewer than 9.5 games. Most likely, the upcoming meeting between Aryna and Pegula will also start with a "low" first set.
Betting Tip - total under 9.5 games in the first set for odds of 1.81
Betting predictions stat
Explore all statistics
Trends
Rate Set Result: 1>2
In 3 of Pegula's last 5 matches, the events on the court have unfolded according to this scenario
2.24Bet Tie-break in the match - no
This bet has played in 4 of Sabalenka's 5 previous matches
1.22