LiontipsJessica Pegula vs Aryna Sabalenka. US Open match prediction and bets
Command Analysis
Current form
Pegula had been working towards her possible triumph at the Grand Slam tournament for a long time. Jessica stopped in the quarterfinals six times and only overcame this barrier on her seventh attempt. Moreover, in the quarterfinals she confidently beat the world's number one Iga Swiatek with a score of 6-2, 6-4. In that match she played much more reliably than her opponent, making only 22 unforced errors, while the Polish tennis player made 41 mistakes.
In the semifinals, Pegula had a tough match with Muchova. The Czech took the first set clean, but Jessica did not give up, played much more boldly, and even took unjustified risks in some places. In the end, she managed to win on the field with a score of 1-6, 6-4, 6-2.
Professional qualities
Jessica tries to play boldly and aggressively, although she does not have outstanding anthropometric data. At the same time, she has excellent speed on her side, including when it comes to making decisions.
Current indicators in the tour
Traditionally, Pegula is strong on hard. Since the beginning of the year, she has played 30 matches on this surface, winning 24 of them. Of these, 15 were in the current North American hard series with the title in Toronto and the final in Cincinnati, where she lost to her current opponent Sabalenka (3-6, 5-7).
Interesting facts for betting
- Pegula won five of her six matches on the way to the final with a 2-0 score in sets.
- In her three previous matches in New York, Jessica had not made more than two double faults.
Current form
Sabalenka purposefully prepared herself for the US Open, gradually gaining momentum. In Washington, she had a semi-final, in Toronto, she put her racket down in the quarterfinals, after which she won the title in Cincinnati. In New York, Arina was close to winning the title last year, but lost in the final to Gauff. This time, she passed six rounds with more than confidence and is ready to win the second Slam of the season. Let us recall that at the beginning of the year, the Belarusian tennis player won the Australian Open title.
In the tournament grid, Sabalenka lost only one set in six matches. In the third round, she played with Alexandrova, did not immediately enter the game, which Ekaterina took full advantage of (2-6, 6-1, 6-2). In the semifinals, Arina played against Navarro, generally led the game, had every chance to finish the match without a tie-break, led in the second set with a break, but did not serve for the match. Nevertheless, she managed to do without a lost set (6-3, 7-6).
Professional qualities
On the court, Sabalenka tries to play first, attacks at the first opportunity, fortunately, for this she has in her arsenal not only a strong serve, but also a powerful forehand, which is not inferior in speed to many men.
Current indicators in the tour
Sabalenka has two titles to her credit in 2024, both of which she won on hard courts – she won the Australian Open and the tournament in Cincinnati. In total, Arina played 35 matches on hard courts, winning 29 of them.
Interesting facts for betting
- In each of the six matches played in New York, Sabalenka served at least three aces
- Arina currently has a winning streak of 11 matches, and in 10 of them she won with an exact score of 2-0 in sets.
Trends
Total under 2.5 sets bet
In their last six personal meetings, the tennis players played the minimum number of sets
1.52Rate Set Result: 2>1
This scenario has played out in four of the last five head-to-head matches
2.21Tip and bets
On the eve of the US Open, the opponents played each other in the final of Cincinnati. Then, in a fairly close game, Sabalenka won with an advantage of five games. We believe that today, Arina, thanks to her aggressive style of play, will be able to seize the initiative and bring the matter to victory. In addition, it is worth noting that five out of seven personal meetings were won by the Belarusian tennis player, and she won all her victories with an exact score of 2-0 in sets.
Our prediction is a victory for Sabalenka with a handicap of (-3.5) games with odds of 1.71
Bet on total
When choosing a bet on the total, we start from the rich history of personal meetings. The tennis players played each other seven times and only in one match did they exchange winning sets. We think it is worth waiting for the scenario that was in the face-to-face meeting in Cincinnati, when they scored 21 games in two sets.
The second bet is total under 22 games for 1.75
Bet on the second set
Note that in three of the last four head-to-head encounters, the most intense struggle unfolded in the second set, where more than nine games were played. Accordingly, we recommend another option for betting.
Betting Tip - total games in the second set over 9.5 with odds of 2.04
