LiontipsCasper Ruud vs Roberto Carballes Baena. Prediction and Betting Tips for ATP Bastad (July 17, 2021).
Command Analysis
Ruud had to play only one match to get into the semifinal of the tournament. He skipped the first round, and in the second one, he crushed Holger Rune (6-0, 6-2). His next opponent was supposed to be Henri Laaksonen, but the Swiss player was a no-show. So the Norwegian automatically advanced to the semifinal.
This season is considered the most successful for Ruud. He has demonstrated great results on clay. For instance, he won the tournament in Geneva, played in the semifinals of the Masters in Madrid and Monte Carlo. At the moment he is ranked 16th in the ATP world rating.
Nobody expected a good performance from the Spaniard at this tournament. Carballes Baena failed in Salzburg last week, leaving the Challenger from the second round, where he lost to Blaž Rola. But in Sweden he plays a very different game.
In the first round in Bastad, the Spaniard confidently beat Facundo Bagnis (6-2, 6-4). Then, he outplayed Fabio Fognini himself (6-3, 1-6, 6-4). And in the quarterfinals, Carballes Baena left no chances for Norbert Gombos (6-4, 6-2).
Trends
СтавкаTotal Over 2.5 Sets
In 3 out of the last 5 matches, the Spaniard played three sets.
Ставка1st Set: Total Over 9.5 Games
In 3 of the last 5 matches of Ruud, at least ten games were played in the first set.
Tip and bets
Ruud is the favourite, but Carballes Baena should not be just written off. The Spaniard is well-prepared for this tournament and is showing excellent play here. His victory over Fognini is proof that he should be taken seriously.
The Norwegian leads the head-to-head, but 3 out of 4 matches between these tennis players were pretty close. With this in mind, we will place a bet on Roberto.
Our prediction - Roberto Carballes Baena to win with a handicap (+5.5)
Carballes Baena can make the favourite worry. Plus, the total is set at quite a low mark of 19.5 games. In 3 out of 4 head-to-head matches, the opponents have played more than 19 games, and we would bet on that again.
Second bet - total over 19.5 games
