LiontipsFabio Fognini vs Roberto Carballes Baena. Prediction and Betting Tips for ATP Bastad (July 15, 2021).
Command Analysis
In 2018, Fognini won the Swedish Open. But we must say, that he got a bit lucky with his opponents back then. In almost all matches, he lost a set, but in the end, he prevailed. However, Fabio missed the following tournaments in Bastad. But this year he is back.
Fognini has played 14 matches on clay this year and won seven of them. The Italian cannot boast stability in his game. But he lost to really strong clay players: Jaume Munar, Bernabe Zapata, and Laslo Djere.
Carballes Baena performed at the Swedish Open in 2019. Two years ago, the Spaniard managed to beat Jaume Munar and Damir Džumhur, but he lost to Albert Ramos in the quarterfinals. This, by the way, was Roberto's best result in Bastad.
This time, Carballes Baena arrived in Bastad right after Salzburg, where he failed to achieve good results. In Austria, Roberto unexpectedly lost to Blaz Rola (7-5, 2-6, 6-7). Perhaps the Spaniard wasn't very focused, because his first match in Bastad was much better: Roberto ousted the strong Argentine Bagnis (6-2, 6-4).
Trends
СтавкаTie-break - no
The Spaniard hasn't played tie-breaks in 3 of his last 4 matches.
Ставка1st set: total over 9.5 games
In 4 out of the last 6 matches of Roberto, at least ten games were played in the first set.
Tip and bets
Fognini is deservedly considered a favourite in this matchup. But the Italian has already failed at similar tournaments this season, so we are not sure what brought Fabio to Sweden. For example, in Marbella, he lost to Munar without a fight (1-6, 2-6).
In the first match of the tournament, Carballes Baena showed a good game. If Fabio can't find his game, he will just give up, and this will be a pleasure cruise for Roberto. Given Fognini's temper, we suggest taking a chance.
Our prediction - Roberto Carballes-Baena to win.
In 2018, 3 of Fognini's 4 matches in Bastad ended after three sets. Considering that the Italian often loses concentration, we believe that the Spaniard will at the very least put up a fight.
Second wager - total over 22.5 games.
