LiontipsReilly Opelka vs Rafael Nadal. Prediction and Betting Tips for ATP ROme (May 15, 2021).
Command Analysis
Who would have guessed that Opelka would have such a great clay campaign! Since the beginning of the year, the American has performed terribly. He has lost five matches in a row and has not won since February when he beat Taiwanese tennis player Lu at the Australian Open. But in Rome, Reilly really surprised everyone: so far, he has not lost a single set here, beating Richard Gasquet (6-1, 7-5), Lorenzo Musetti (6-4, 6-4), Aslan Karatsev (7-6, 6-4) and Federico Delbonis (7-5, 7-6) on his way to the semifinal.
It is worth mentioning that Opelka's main weapon is his big serve. In four matches, he has struck 77 aces and never lost his serve to an opponent.
Surprising as it may seem, Nadal has yet to win a single clay Masters this season. In Monte Carlo, Rafa lost to Andrey Rublev, and in Madrid - to Alexander Zverev. He won his only title on this surface in Barcelona, when he defeated Stefanos Tsitsipas in the final (6-4, 6-7, 7-5).
In Rome, the King of the Clay has also been having some problems. For example, he conceded one set to Denis Shapovalov (3-6, 6-4, 7-6). But in the other matches, he didn't allow himself such a weakness: he beat Jannik Sinner (7-6, 6-4), and Alexander Zverev (6-3, 6-4) in straight sets.
Trends
СтавкаOpelka IT Over 12.5 Games
The American has won at least 13 games in 3 of his last 4 matches.
Ставка1st Set: Total Over 9.5 Games
In the last three matches of Opelka, at least ten games were played in the first set.
Tip and bets
The match won't be a pleasure cruise for Nadal.His return is not as good as it used to be, and he had struggled against the opponents with a weaker serve. We believe that Opelka's big serve will help him against the King of the Clay, and he shouldn't lose with a crushing score.
Our prediction - handicap (+5) games to Reilly Opelka
In the last three matches of Opelka, at least 20 games have been played. An exception was the game against Gasquet, but the Frenchman lost one of the sets with a score of 1-6. We doubt that Nadal can handle the American's serve. Most likely the athletes will go over the total.
Second prediction - total over 19.5 games
