LiontipsAlexander Bublik vs Casper Ruud. Prediction and Betting Tips for ATP Madrid (May 7, 2021).
Command Analysis
Despite the fact that Bublik doesn't really like playing on clay, in this tournament in Madrid he is demonstrating good game. In the first two rounds Alexander notched the impressive wins against Marton Fucsovic (7-6, 6-3) and Denis Shapovalov (6-4, 5-7, 6-4). In the Round of 16, Bublik had a more dangerous opponent, but he prevailed nevertheless and sent Aslan Karatsev home, winning in straight sets (6-4, 6-3).
We must note that this is the first clay Masters quarterfinal in Alexander's career.
It looks like Ruud is well prepared for the clay season. In April, the Norwegian surprised everyone with his performance in Monte Carlo. Back then, Ruud was one step shy of reaching the final match. Now Casper has an opportunity to progress further.
Ruud quite confidently played against all his rivals in Madrid. In the entire tournament, he has not yet lost a single game. On his way to the quarterfinal, Casper beat Felix Auger Aliassime (6-1, 6-4), Yoshihito Nishioka (6-1, 6-2), and Stefanos Tsitsipas (7-6, 6-4).
Trends
СтавкаTotal Sets Under 2.5
The minimum number of games was played in the last six matches of the Norwegian player.
Ставка1st set: total under 9.5 games
No more than nine games have been played in the first set in 5 of Ruud's last 6 matches.
Tip and bets
Ruud is a more balanced player, and at this stage of the tournament, it plays an important role. It's no secret that Bublik has a difficult personality. Several times this season he has claimed that he hates tennis (by the way, that took place on the court).
We believe that the Norwegian will remind Alexander of his words again, imposing a tough fight on Bublik. When the player from Kazahstan loses it, he can give away a whole set. The lack of composure might lower his chances of winning.
Our prediction is Casper Ruud to win with a handicap (-3.5) games.
Ruud is very confident in this tournament. It is unlikely that Bublik will be able to create problems for him. If Casper could defeat the World No. 5 Stefanos Tsitsipas, he can beat Alexander, too.
Second prediction - total under 23.5 games.
