Sabalenka vs Pavlyuchenkova. Predictions and Betting Tips for WTA Madrid

Command Analysis

In last week Aryna Sabalenka gained an excellent form at Stuttgart and improved even more during Madrid tournament. Belarusian player didn't let her opponents to win a single set at the Spanish capital. Daria Kasatkina had the best result against Aryna and she won only 6 games (6:3, 6:3).
By the way, Pavlyuchenkova is the third Russian representative that Aryna will face during this tournament. Putting Kasatkina aside, Belarusian player also beat Vera Zvonareva in the first round (6:1, 6:2).
Two last matches at Madrid were like a walk in the park for Sabalenka. In the round of 16 Aryna crushed Pegula (6:1, 6:2). In the quarter-finals Mertens left the match during the second set because of health problems.

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova's success is one of the major sensations of Madrid Open, because she wasn't performing so great before this tournament, she won only five matches on eight competitions. At the Spanish capital Russian player won four matches in a row in one week.
All of her victories weren't easy. In the first two rounds she beat Keys (7:5, 6:2) and Karolina Pliskova (6:0, 7:5). She also had a hard time in matches against Brady (7:5, 6:7, 6:3) and Muchova (7:6, 7:6). Pavlyuchenkova left too much energy and emotions in this clashes, but it won't be easier in the semi-final.
Trends
СтавкаTie-break: yes
In last two Pavlyuchenkova's matches three tie-breaks were played
СтавкаFirst set: total under 9.5
In all four Sabalenka's matches at Madrid no more than nine games were played in the first set
Tip and bets
Pavlyuchenkova has one victory over Sabalenka, but that was in 2019 on hard surface. Belarusian player is currently at her peak, she plays confidently at her serve and has lots of energy left. Pavlyuchenkova had a very difficult journey to the semi-finals and played unstable at her serve. In our prediction we expect a confident victory for Belarusian player.
Our prediction - Sabalenka to win with a handicap of (-4.5) games
Aryna won all of her matches at Madrid in straight sets and never played more than 20 games. We expect the same scenario in the semi-final.
Second bet - total under 20.5 games







