LiontipsSabalenka vs Mertens. Predictions and Betting Tips for WTA Madrid
Command Analysis
Aryna Sabalenka is having a wonderful run at Madrid. Seventh-seeded player won three matches without any problems, she left no chance to Zvonareve (6:1, 6:2), Kasatkina (6:3, 6:3) and Pegula (6:1, 6:2). She played extremely efficient in every single game and lived up to bookmakers' expectations.
Sabalenka is an excellent server. She gave away only two games at her serve in three matches. She has also played great at the return of the serve and got many breaks from her opponents,
Her next match will be against a familiar player. Sabalenka won four out of six head-to-head games.
Elise Mertens deserves a credit for reaching the quarter-final. Her two last matches were against tough opponents - Elena Rybakina (7:6, 7:5) and Simona Halep (4:6, 7:5, 7:5).
It's important that her last match against the Romanian player was going on for 2 hours and 36 minutes. She also played against Rybakina for more than two hours. She is obviously exhausted right now. Mertens also failed to be stable at her serve - she gave away 5 games at her serve to Kazakhstani player and seven - to Romanian.
Trends
СтавкаMertens' breaks: total under 4
Sabalenka gave away only two games as the server at Madrid
СтавкаSecond set: total under 9.5
In three last H2H matches there were no more than 9 games played in the second set
Tip and bets
Aryna Sabalenka has three victories in the previous head-to-head games. Belarusian player also had a more confident run at Madrid tournament. We expect that Belarus representative will advance to the semi-finals with a solid win.
Our prediction - Sabalenka to win with a handicap of (-2.5) games
Players are friends in real life and successful double partners, so they know each others' playing style pretty good. We think that it will be a long match with at least 20 games played, just like in five out of last six head-to-head matches.
Second bet - total over 20 games.
