LiontipsPaul vs Rublev. Predictions and Betting Tips for ATP Madrid
Command Analysis
In opposition to most American players, Paul is not connected to hard surface. He can put up great performances on clay as well. Tommy once won junior Roland Garros. He defeated German player Taylor Fritz in the final of that tournament.
Despite his ability to play on that surface, he didn't win too many clay matches during this season. He actually has only two victories. And both of them were over one player - Pedro Martinez. At Monte-Carlo Spaniard had refused to continue the match with a score at 1:4. Second win was here, at Madrid, this time Paul defeated him with a 6:4, 7:5 score.
In this season Rublev has already reached the final at Monte-Carlo Masters. Though he lost the decisive match to Stephanos Tsitsipas (3:6, 3:6).
We should mention that clay is not the best fit for Andrey. He gave away one set to Roberto Bautista Agut and then to Rafael Nadal at Monte-Carlo tournament. Russian also had a hard time at Barcelona, where he experienced some troubles against Federico Gaio (6:4, 6:3) and Alberto Ramos (6:4, 6:7, 6:4).
Trends
СтавкаFirst set: total under 9,5
In 4 out of last 6 Russian's matches there were no more than nine games played in the first set
СтавкаSets total under 2,5
In 5 out of last 8 Rublev's matches there were only two sets played
Tip and bets
Rublev is 2:0 ahead on head-to-head games, but both matches were close. Moreover, at Hamburg tournament in the previous year Paul snatched one set from the Russian player. American has a powerful serve and he plays great at the baseline. He should cause some problems to the favourite.
Our prediction - handicap (+6) games for Tommy Paul
In two head-to-head matches there were more than 23 games played. It is unlikely to change now, because Rublev can't take easy wins on clay. That's why we expect a long match.
Second prediction - total over 19,5 games
